COMMODITIES: WTI Falls As Saudi Arabia Appears Willing To Sustain Lower Prices
Apr-30 18:48
- WTI extended declines today after Reuters cited Saudi sources that the Kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of lower prices.
- WTI Jun 25 is down by 3.7% at $58.2/bbl.
- The possible shift in Saudi policy suggests a move towards higher production, targeting market share.
- A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme. Below here, next support is seen at $54.67 the April 9 low and the bear trigger, followed by $53.72, a Fibonacci projection.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged down by 0.5% to $3,302/oz.
- This latest move down in gold appears corrective and the trend needle continues to point north. The next objective is $3,547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3,245.4, the 20-day EMA.
- Elsewhere, copper has fallen by 5.6% to $460/lb amid reports that traders in China were squaring off their positions ahead of the 5-day Labour Day holiday there.
- The move in copper undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests that the rally between Apr 7 - 23 has been a correction. Further weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low, ahead of $407.40, the Apr 7 low and key support.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Projected Rate Cuts Retreat
Mar-31 18:41
SOFR and Treasury option trade remained mixed late Monday, still leaning toward low delta/upside calls even as underlying futures have see-sawed off early morning highs to extending lows in late trade. Curves twisting flatter (5s30s -2.068 at 62.703 compared to 67.406 high (Jan'22 high). In turn - projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have retreated from this morning's levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4.7bp (-6bp), Jun'25 at -20.1bp (-23.6bp), Jul'25 at -35.1bp (-40.6bp), Sep'25 -51.4bp (-58bp).
- SOFR Options:
- 4,900 SFRZ5 96.37/96.75/97.12 call flys, ref 96.41
- 2,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call trees ref 96.225
- Block, 5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/97.00 call spds, 24.0 vs. 96.435/0.30%
- Block, 30,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 5.0 adds to 10,000 earlier at 4.5
- +10,000 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys, 0.75 vs. 95.93/0.05%
- +2,500 SFRZ5/3QZ5 97.00 call spds, 2.5 net steepener
- +3,500 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25 put spds, 10.5 ref 96.46/0.15%
- 4,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 7.5 ref 96.62
- 2,000 0QJ5 96.37/96.50 3x2 put spds ref 96.62
- Block/screen, 10,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spds, 0.0
- Block, 5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 4.5 ref 96.435
- 2,000 2QM5 95.62/95.75/95.93 put flys ref 96.60
- Block, 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.62/95.87 put spd spds, 0.0
- Block, 6,000 SFRM5 96.25/96.50 call spds, 2.0 ref 95.955
- Block 5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call trees, 13.0
- 3,000 0QK5 95.75/95.87/96.00/96.12 put condors ref 96.635
- 1,900 SFRN5 95.56/95.62/95.68 put flys ref 96.245
- Treasury Options:
- 2,000 TYM5 109/111 2x1 put spds ref 111-12
- 10,000 TYM5 112 calls, 57 ref 111-14
- 1,600 FVK5 108.5/109 call spds
- 4,500 TYM5 109/110 put spds ref 111-16.5
- 1,150 FVM5 108.5/111 1x3 call spds, 19.5 ref 108-13.25
- +15,000 TYK5 111.75/112.75/113 broken call trees, 0.0 ref 111-18.5
- over 4,400 TYK5 110.5 puts, 21 last ref 111-19
- 3,500 FVK5 108.25/109.25 call spds ref 108-14.5
- 2,000 FVM5 110/111/112 call trees ref 108-13.75
- 5,000 wk1 TY 110.5 puts, 6 ref 111-19
- 12,000 TYK5 113.5/115 call spds ref 111-19 to -19.5
- 1,750 TYK5 112/113 call spds ref 111-21.5
- 3,000 FVM5 109.25/110 call spds, 10.5 ref 108-14.5
- 8,000 TYK5 113/114.5 call spds, ref 111-14.5
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
Mar-31 18:30
- RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 2: 150.90/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28
- RES 1: 149.84 Intraday high
- PRICE: 149.52 @ 14:37 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 148.59 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 147.42 Low Mar 13
- SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger
USDJPY traded lower Monday. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 150.90 - is intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, the first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.
US STOCKS: Late Monday Equities Roundup: Retailers, Refiners Leading Gainers
Mar-31 18:26
- Stocks are extending late session highs amid moderate month-end buying while markets remain on edge ahead of this week's "Liberation Day" Trump tariff rollout on April 2. Currently, the DJIA trades up 269.26 points (0.65%) at 41854.88,
S&P E-Minis up 6.75 points (0.12%) at 5629.75, Nasdaq down 117 points (-0.7%) at 17206.99. - Consumer Staples and Energy related sectors continued to outperform in the second half, broadline retailers and grocers buoyed the former with Dollar Tree +2.46%, Walmart Inc +1.94%, Tyson Foods +1.89% and Kroger +1.71%.
- Oil and gas refiners led gainers as crude rallied (WTI +2.12 at 71.48): ConocoPhillips +1.99%, EOG Resources +1.52%, Diamondback Energy +1.34%, Devon Energy +1.31% andPhillips 66 +1.07%
- On the flipside, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors continued to underperform in late trade, semiconductor makers weighed on the Tech sector: NVIDIA -3.41%, ON Semiconductor -3.35%, Micron Technology -3.34%, Monolithic Power Systems -2.88% and Broadcom -2.57%.
- A mix of auto and travel shares weighing on the former: Tesla -3.18%; Caesars Entertainment -3.19%, MGM Resorts -2.27%, Booking Holdings -2.09%, Carnival -2.06% and Royal Caribbean Cruises -1.79%.
