COMMODITIES: WTI Edges Up, Gold Unchanged

The June/September Treasury futures roll is almost two-thirds complete, picking up after the Memorial Day weekend. Latest estimates in table below: 

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.49/145.73 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 144.38 @ 16:59 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 142.12 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY underwent a solid intraday rally, however broader trend conditions remain soft - meaning today’s strength is - for now - considered corrective. Support at 142.36, the May 6 low, has been pierced, and a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and the next key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.73, the 50-day EMA.  

• Spot gold has fallen by 1.3% to $3,300/oz on Tuesday, amid a firmer dollar and rally in long-end core yields.
• Despite an improvement in US-EU trade relations, policy uncertainty remains high. Alongside continued US fiscal concerns, the case for holding gold remains. TD Securities notes that CTAs will buy gold in any scenario over the coming week.
• From a technical perspective, the recovery in gold from the May 15 low has signalled an end to the corrective phase that started on April 22.
• Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish, and a move higher would open $3,435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3,121.0, the May 15 low.
• Elsewhere, copper has also pulled back by 2.0% today to $474/lb, amid signs of weaker Chinese demand as orders for electrical wires have slowed in May.
• A bearish threat for copper remains and a breach of $447.75, the May 9 low, would confirm a resumption of the bear leg, exposing $436.00, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is $498.25, the Apr 23 high.
• Meanwhile, WTI lost ground today amid reports that OPEC is likely to commit to another larger than planned hike in output from July at its May 31 meeting.
• WTI Jul 25 is down by 1.2% at $60.8/bbl.
• A continuation lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. On the upside, key resistance to watch is $62.63, the 50-day EMA.