OIL: WTI Crude rallied today, after declines yesterday

Apr-24 18:35

April 24 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude rallied today, after declines yesterday due to uncertainty around Kazakhstan’s commitment to OPEC+ targets, potential June OPEC+ output increases, and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Reports today suggest Iran may be seeking an interim deal, rather than a comprehensive deal within 60 days as the US is seeking. Trump’s comment that talks with China are being held added to the momentum despite Chinese denial of it.

  • Axios reports suggest that Iran-US talks may be going slower than President Trump’s proposed timetable and that Iran is pushing for an interim deal, rather than a comprehensive deal within 60 days.
  • Oil prices may see further downside this year on rising production and with demand limited by China’s faltering growth, according to the IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cited by Bloomberg.
  • Several OPEC+ members want to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at their meeting on May 5, Reuters said. Uncertainty surrounds commitment to cut from overproducer Kazakhstan as the country weighs national interests and OPEC+ quotas amid signs of discontent in the group.
  • OPEC+ will likely launch a diplomatic push to convince Kazakhstan to comply with its target, according to DNB Markets analysts cited by Bloomberg.
  • Eni says Kazakhstan authorities haven’t been in touch about any cut in production, Bloomberg reports.
  • The White House is reportedly nearing a deal with India that could act as a trade template, according to a social media post by Fox reporter Charles Gasparino.
  • US Energy Secretary Wright said tariff uncertainty is a “short-term issue” for a “few more weeks.”
  • President Trump commented on trade talk with China, saying they had a meeting this morning though the FT had reported Chinese officials denied anything was taking place.
  • US cracks are steady after both diesel and gasoline cracks found support from larger-than-expected stock draws.
    • WTI June futures were up 0.8% at $62.79
    • WTI July futures were up 0.8% at $62.12
    • RBOB May futures were up 1.1% at $2.11
    • ULSD May futures were up 0.8% at $2.14
    • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 25.26$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 25.37$/bbl

Historical bullets

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

Mar-25 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024  
  • RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
  • RES 1: 1.3015 High MAr 20 and the bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.2954 @ 16:15 GMT Mar 25 
  • SUP 1: 1.2886 Low Mar 21     
  • SUP 2: 1.2861 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.2722 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support  
  • SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28      

The GBPUSD trend needle continues to point north and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2861, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2722.

PIPELINE: Late Corporate Bond Update

Mar-25 18:26

$15.25B to price Tuesday:

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 03/25 $4.4B #Bausch Health 7NC3 10%
  • 03/25 $3B *MTR $500M 5Y +40, $1B 10Y +58. $1.5B 30Y +70
  • 03/25 $2B #LG Energy $400M 3Y +135, $600M 5Y +145, $300M 5Y SOFR+170, $700M 10Y +170
  • 03/25 $1.75B #Côte d'Ivoire 10y WAL 8.45%
  • 03/25 $1.25B #NWB 3Y SOFR+36
  • 03/25 $1.25B #NDB 3Y SOFR +65
  • 03/25 $1B *MuniFin WNG 5Y SOFR+46
  • 03/25 $1B *JFM 5Y SOFR+64
  • 03/25 $1B #IDB 5Y SOFR+49
  • 03/25 $500M #AerCap WNG +30NC5 6.5%
  • Expected Wednesday:
  • 03/26 $Benchmark Kingdom of Belgium 10Y SOFR+67a

US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Mar-25 18:11

RRP usage rebounds to $214.786B this afternoon from $196.565B Monday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties at 48.

reverse repo 03252025