AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude rallied amid headlines from both the US and Russia

• RES 4: 147.26 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11  
• RES 2: 144.47 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 142.66 @ 16:46 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

Recent gains in USDJPY are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.47, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.26. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.

Meanwhile the average of current Prices Paid indices across four regional Feds (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia - excludes Richmond which publishes a % change and not an index) hit a 33-month high (Jul 2022) in April. 

• Three of the four in our index saw an increase in April vs March with the exception of KC which was unchanged, and notably Richmond prices paid hit the highest since January 2023.
• Current consensus is for ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid to rise to 73.0 in April from 69.4 prior, marking a fresh post-June 2022 high.
• The regional Fed readings suggest an increase in that category is certainly to be expected, and the magnitude seen in consensus in the low 70s doesn't appear to be far off.

Four of the five major regional Fed manufacturing surveys deteriorated in April (Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas - the exception was New York which was still very weak) versus March.

• This dragged the average of the 5 indices to the lowest since May 2020. At that time, the ISM Manufacturing index was in the low 40s.
• Average forward-looking expectations fell to the lowest since October 2022 on average in the 5 Fed surveys.
• This was the 3rd consecutive sequential deterioration in the 5-Fed index average, and we would expect the April ISM Manufacturing index to do likewise in April (50.9 in January, 50.3 in February, 49.0 in March).
• Current consensus is for ISM manufacturing (out Thursday at 1000ET) to print 48.0 in April, but we would see the risks to this firmly to the downside.