AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude rallied after the Trump-Xi call
Jun-05 18:34
June 5 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude rallied after a Trump-Xi call, with the two sides agreeing to meet for further trade discussions soon. The move higher has offset declines seen yesterday after reports that Saudi Arabia was seeking further large OPEC+ output hikes.
- Trump and Xi held a phone call today, discussing trade related matters. Though no major developments were announced, the two sides agreed that a new round of talks should start as soon as possible.
- Russian President Putin told US President Trump that Russia would respond to Ukraine’s attack on its bombers, with prospects of a breakthrough towards a peace agreement looking unlikely. Trump commented that he hasn’t looked at the Russia sanctions bill but thought it was harsh.
- Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized the latest U.S. nuclear proposal on Wednesday and said it was “arrogant” for Washington to expect Tehran to cease uranium enrichment.
- A second day of rain has helped eased Alberta wildfire concerns with out-of-control fires down to 21, AER shows, but ~455kb/d of oil output was still within 10km of the fires from 462kb/d yesterday.
- Venezuela’s PDVSA has signed at least nine new deals with foreign service providers, including two Chinese firms, in an effort to keep production up after the US forced Chevron to cease operations in the country, Bloomberg reports.
- Canada’s TMX flows from Westridge Marine Terminal declined to 453 kbd in May, down from 491 kbd in April, driven by scheduled oil sands maintenance according to Kpler tracking.
- Irving Oil plans to spend C$100m to modernize an FCC unit at its 298k b/d St John refinery in Canada, the company said in a press release. Work will begin this month.
- US cracks have recovered some of the losses seen yesterday post-EIA, supported by signs of easing global trade tensions following the Trump-Xi call.
- WTI July futures were up 0.8% at $63.37
- WTI Aug futures were up 0.9% at $62.48
- RBOB Jul futures were up 1.4% at $2.06
- ULSD Jul futures were up 1.1% at $2.09
- US gasoline crack up 0.6$/bbl at 23.29$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 24.56$/bbl
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COMMODITIES: Crude Rebounds Amid Mid-East Tensions, Gold Recovers
May-06 18:32
- Crude has rebounded back to levels seen late last week amidst signs of rising tensions in the Middle East, while the market continues to digest oversupply risks after OPEC+ decided on a large output hike for June.
- WTI June 25 is up by 3.6% at $59.2/bbl.
- OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411k b/d in June, following a similar rise in May.
- A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
- Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Resistance to watch is $64.13, the 50-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, gold has rallied by a further 2.5% today to $3,417/oz, taking total gains this week to over 5%.
- The move comes amid a further decline in the dollar, which will have provided some support to the price of gold, along with continued haven demand stemming from ongoing tariff and geopolitical uncertainty.
- The rally in gold this week suggests that the correction between Apr 22 - May 1 is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- Elsewhere, copper has also rallied by a further 1.3% to $476/lb, taking total gains this week to almost 2%.
- For copper, key short-term resistance has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A resumption of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 5Y/30Y Ultra Bond Flattener
May-06 18:31
Large flattener block posted at 1422:48ET, DV01 $555,000:
- -13,000 FVM5 108-14.75, sell through 108-15.5 post time bid vs.
- +3,000 WNM5 118-19, post time offer
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
May-06 18:30
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
- RES 2: 146.49 50-day EMA and key resistance
- RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
- PRICE: 142.84 @ 16:55 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 142.36/141.97 Low May 6 / Apr 29
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
The trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 are considered corrective. Price remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.49. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.
