AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude prices ended lower
August 7 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude prices ended lower amid signs of progress towards peace in Ukraine given a planned Trump-Putin meeting next week and owing to continued economic concerns following Trump’s punitive 25% additional tariff on India announced yesterday.
- President Trump said that special envoy Witkoff made “great progress” in Russia and that he should meet with President Putin next week. He sounded very uncertain though on the chance of a truce despite his August 8 deadline.
- RBC: “Despite the strong pushback from the Modi government, we do believe that the White House has the tools to force a significant reduction in India imports of Russian oil.”
- India is unlikely to step down from its stance on its Russian oil purchases yet, Platts reports, though refiners are adopting a cautious approach to Russian crude.
- Russia crude oil prices to India fall amid demand uncertainty due to EU sanctions and the treat of US penalties, according to Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
- Despite ramping up output, Saudi Arabia raised its September Arab Light OSP to Asia by $1/bbl to +$3.20/bbl, as expected, and signals confidence in demand.
- China's July crude oil imports rose 11.5% year on as state-owned refineries maintained high rates, although flows fell from the highest in nearly two years in June.
- China's crude oil imports in July fell from the highest in nearly two years in June to 47.204m tons but rose 11.5% year on year, General Administration of Customs data showed.
- The volatility skew for near term crude options has switched back in favor of put options this week amid market excess supply risks.
- Citi analysts kept their base case for Brent in the low $60s/bbl for year-end 2025, Reuters reported.
- US cracks are higher, with product pricing mixed while crude oil declined after the latter was more directly impacted by the Russia news.
- WTI Sep futures were down 0.8% at $63.88
- WTI Oct futures were down 0.6% at $63.02
- RBOB Sep futures were down 0.7% at $2.08
- ULSD Sep futures were up 0.1% at $2.27
- US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 23.38$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.7$/bbl at 31.32/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 146.77/98 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg / Intraday high
- PRICE: 146.79 @ 16:26 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 144.95 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
- SUP 3: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
USDJPY continues to appreciate. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 146.77, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support points to watch are 144.95, the 50-day EMA, and 144.23, the Jun 7 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Most Of Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
- PRICE: 0.8630 @ 16:25 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.8555/8507 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would further strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8555, the 20-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2.25B American Honda 3Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 07/08 $3B *IADB (Inter-American Development Bank) 10Y SOFR+61
- 07/08 $2.25B #American Honda $900M 2Y +65, $600M 2Y SOFR+87, $750M 7Y +100
- 07/08 $Benchmark BFCM 3.25Y +72, 3.25Y SOFR+99
- 07/08 $750M Gray Media 7NC investor calls
- Potential roll-over from Monday:
- 07/?? $Benchmark Nissan Motor 5Y 7.25%a, 7Y 7.75%a, 10Y 8%a
- 07/?? $Benchmark NTT Finance Corp multi tranche investor calls: 2Y, 3Y fix/SOFR, 5Y fix/SOFR, 7Y, 10Y, 12Y -- in addition to EUR issuance 2Y, -4Y, 8Y and 12Y
