AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is holding within range and below the May 13 high
May-20 18:36
May 20 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude is holding within range and below the May 13 high as the market continues to watch progress on trade, Iran and Ukraine.
- President Trump says Russia and Ukraine will start negotiations toward a ceasefire ‘immediately’ following his call with Russian President Putin, but any real progress towards peace appears limited, and uncertainty surrounds Trump’s commitment to the effort.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Al Khameni says he does not think the nuclear talks with the U.S. will yield a result.
- China crude imports from Russia fell 5.8% in April from last month while supply from trans-shipment hub Malaysia also fell 6.3%.
- Russia’s seaborne crude shipments in the week to May 18 fell by about 90kb/d to 3.4mb/d, according to Bloomberg.
- Industry-based US crude inventory data out later today will be monitored for indications of softening demand. EIA inventory surveys – Gasoline (bbl): -0.88m (Bbg), -1.1m (WSJ), -0.5m (Reuters). Distillates (bbl): -1.74m (Bbg), -1.3m (WSJ), -1.4m (Reuters). Ref runs (%): +0.35 (Bbg), +0.4 (WSJ), +0.8 (Reuters)
- OIES has reduced the Brent forecast by $2/bbl to $69.7/bbl for 2025 and by $1/bbl to $67.8/bbl in 2026 and with downside risks from global trade policy and macroeconomic uncertainty.
- The EIA says an expected stronger-than-average hurricane season raises the risk of weather-related oil production outages.
- The Trump administration is reported to be extending the Chevron Venezuela license by a further 60 days, Bloomberg reports based on a source.
- PBF’s 166,000 b/d Torrance refinery plans to flare gases May 21-May 29.
- Two Corpus Christi, Texas, refineries report emissions: Valero’s West Plant at its 301,000 b/d refinery and Flint Hills Resources’ West Plant at its 350,000 b/d refinery both reported events to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
- US cracks are firmer ahead of weekly inventory data that are expected to show across-the-board draws.
- WTI June futures were down 0.1% at $62.56
- WTI July futures were down 0.1% at $62.05
- RBOB Jun futures were up 0.6% at $2.15
- ULSD Jun futures were up 0.1% at $2.13
- US gasoline crack up 0.6$/bbl at 27.75$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 26.79$/bbl
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
