AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude has surged higher
June 13 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude has surged higher today amid a major escalation in Middle East tensions after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities/military targets. Signs that Iranian officials are in contact with Trump has seen some of the gains reversed, highlighting market sensitivity to any potential signs of de-escalation. Given uncertainty around the duration of the offensive, gains largely held firm into the close.
- Israel comments suggest that military operations will continue until its objectives are met, while focus is also on Iran's response. The country stated it will respond harshly against the US and Israel in response to the attacks.
- Upside pressure being added to by Trump’s comments that “it will only get worse,” and that “the next already planned attacks” will be “even more brutal,” as the market focuses on the potential for an extended bombing campaign by Israel.
- Reports suggest Israel has struck Iran again throughout the day including in Shiraz, Tabriz and Natanz, while Iran sent a wave of ~100 drones to attack Israel.
- Iran reported that there was no damage to its oil refineries or storage tanks, according to Bloomberg.
- Crude time spreads surged higher amid the risk from escalating Middle East tensions and fears of a protracted conflict. The contango structure beyond early 2026, suggesting market oversupply expectations from rising OPEC+ supply and ongoing trade tensions, has now almost disappeared.
- Crude oil is back at early April levels, having reversed much of the fall seen in recent months due to rising OPEC+ supply and ongoing global trade tensions.
- Goldman Sachs said that it assumed there will not be disruptions to Middle East oil supply after Israel launched an attack on Iran, Reuters reported.
- Marathon 100,000 b/d Canton refinery to start 60-day turnaround early July.
- US cracks were mixed with gasoline cracks facing significant pressure from the surge in underlying oil prices, while distillate cracks are up amid greater exposure to Middle East tensions.
- WTI July futures were up 7.5% at $72.98
- WTI Aug futures were up 7.3% at $71.53
- RBOB Jul futures were up 4.0% at $2.23
- ULSD Jul futures were up 7.9% at $2.36
- US gasoline crack down 1.8$/bbl at 26.09$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 1.8$/bbl at 26.07$/bbl
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COMMODITIES: Precious Metals Fall Amid Easing Of Trade Tensions
- Spot gold has fallen by 2.2% to $3,178/oz today as the moderation in US/China trade tensions continues to support global risk sentiment, weighing on the yellow metal.
- The move breaches initial support at $3,202.0, the May 1 low, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards $3,164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg.
- The 50-day EMA, another key support, is also at $3,164.9. A breach of both would undermine a short-term bullish theme, opening round number support at $3,100.0. Initial resistance is $3,267.9, the 20-day EMA.
- Silver is also weaker today, with the precious metal currently 2.3% lower on the session at $32.2/oz.
- The gold/silver ratio thus remains stable around 98.7, off from last month’s multi-year highs of 107. Initial support is the April 4 low at 97.4.
- Meanwhile, crude is softer on the day with an unexpected US crude stock build adding pressure.
- WTI Jun 25 is down by 0.7% at $63.2/bbl.
- Expectations are growing that a further increase in OPEC+ supply for July is to be announced at the June 1 meeting.
- A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support seen at $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger.
- On the upside, a clear break of key resistance at $63.55, the 50-day EMA, would highlight a stronger reversal, opening $66.41, the Apr 4 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Reverses Monday Rally
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
- PRICE: 146.31 @ 15:54 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 146.32/144.93 50- and 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29
- SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
USDJPY reversed the Monday rally into the Wednesday close, playing into the bearish primary trend condition. This underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective, and a further reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, May 6 low. Price is operating either side of former resistance at the 50-day EMA, and a clear break back above this level would slow any downside bias.
US TSY FUTURES: June'25-September'25 Roll Update
Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from June'25 to September'25 rather muted this morning, percentage complete is still running less that 5% across the curve ahead the "First Notice" date on May 30. Current roll details:
- TUM5/TUU5 appr 13,000 from -8.5 to -7.88, -7.88 last
- FVM5/FVU5 appr 95,200 from -3.75 to -2.75, -2.75 last
- TYM5/TYU5 appr 25,200 from -1.75 to -0.75, -0.75 last
- UXYM5/UXYU5 appr 13,600 from 3.5 to 3.75, 3.75 last
- USM5/USU5 appr 1,900 from 9.75 to 10.25, 10.0 last
- WNM5/WNU5 appr 6,300 from 5.5 to 6.0, 5.75 last
- Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, 2s and 5s on June 30. June Tsy options, however, expire May 23.
