AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude has reversed earlier ~2% losses and moved higher
May 1 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude has reversed earlier ~2% losses and moved higher on the day, with signs of delayed US-Iran talks supportive. Rising expectations of a further sizeable OPEC+ production hike in June and global demand concerns continue have added pressure in recent days. Trump posted on Truth Social late in the session taking a tough stance on buyers of Iranian oil.
- The US-Iran meeting provisionally planned for Saturday May 3rd has been rescheduled according to Qatari officials.
- The US and Ukraine have signed a minerals deal today. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the deal will allow Trump to negotiate with Russia on a stronger basis.
- Saudi Arabia is not overly concerned about lower prices suggesting that it may focus on market share instead, Reuters said.
- Shipments from Russia’s Far East hit a record in April, with exports of EPSO exceeding 1m b/d for the first time, Bloomberg said.
- China’s imports of Iranian crude fell 470kb/d in April to 1.3mb/d from a five month higher in March and are set to decline further in May, Kpler said.
- Venezuela’s oil exports fell 20% to 700k b/d in April, the lowest level in nine months, as cargo cancellations to Chevron forced ships to return and leave some ports empty, Reuters reports.
- MUFG has lowered its Brent price forecast to $66/bbl in 2025 and $62/bbl in 2026, citing tariff-induced softer global demand and rampant supply growth, according to an analyst note.
- Citigroup said Brent “could soon give way to prices falling well into the $50s” after a forecast of $60/bbl has been reached, according to a note cited by Bloomberg.
- Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to an average of $68.98/bbl with demand under pressure from US trade disputes and due to the unwinding of supply cuts by OPEC+, according to a Reuters poll.
- President Trump said countries that take oil from Iran cannot do business with the US. He said he had imposed sanctions on Iranian oil yesterday.
- MNI U.S. Refinery Updates: Q1 Call Highlights
- See the latest refinery updates/overviews from major U.S. refiners based on Q1 2025 calls. Info runs from newest to oldest.
- {https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_U_S_Refinery_Updates_Q1_Call_Highlights_06ad1a3828.pdf} Saudi Arabia officials in recent weeks have briefed allies, industry experts, that kingdom can sustain prolonged period of low oil prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks tell Reuters.
- Cracks diverged again, with gasoline cracks higher amid supportive implied gasoline demand data in yesterday’s EIA report while diesel cracks are lower again after an unexpected stock build in the EIA report.
- WTI June futures were up 1.8% at $59.24
- WTI July futures were up 1.9% at $58.69
- RBOB Jun futures were up 1.7% at $2.05
- ULSD Jun futures were up 0.6% at $2.01
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 26.86$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 25.29$/bbl
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COMMODITIES: Crude Ticks Down, Gold Retreats From Fresh Record High
- Crude markets are edging lower, although the market lacks a clear trajectory. Concerns of weaker economic growth from looming US tariffs weigh against sanction threats against buyers of Russian and Iranian oil.
- WTI May 25 is down by 0.5% at $71.1/bbl.
- US reciprocal tariffs are to be announced on Wednesday. Press secretary Leavitt said that there would be “no exemptions at this time”.
- From a technical perspective, the sharp rally in WTI futures yesterday undermines the medium-term bearish condition and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
- This rally has exposed the next key resistance at $72.91, the Feb 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme.
- On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $68.99, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a potential reversal.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has retreated from a fresh record high, with the yellow metal currently 0.2% lower on the session at $3,118/oz.
- Earlier in the session, gold had risen to a new high of $3,149 ahead of President Trump's trade tariffs announcement tomorrow. Gold remains 19.5% higher YTD, amid concerns over mounting geopolitical and trade tensions.
- The trend condition in gold remains bullish, with sights on $3,151.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3,015.6, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 2: 150.90/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.27 High Mar 31
- PRICE: 149.33 @ 16:01 BST Apr 1
- SUP 1: 148.70 Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 147.42 Low Mar 13
- SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger
USDJPY is trading below last week’s high. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 150.86 - is intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.
US: Americans Sceptical Of Tariffs Ahead Of 'Liberation Day' Announcement
Morning Consult reports: “Ahead of Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariff rollout on Wednesday, Trump’s approval ratings on trade have dipped underwater (45% approve vs. 47% disapprove) for the first time as more voters than not continue to disapprove of his handling of the broader economy.”
- AP-NORC reports: “It’s been over two months since Donald Trump retook office. Perceptions of his performance are mixed, especially when compared with his first term. About half of adults approve of how Trump is handling immigration, exceeding his approval on the issue during his first term. But 40% approve of his handling of the economy, dropping to its lowest level since December of 2017.”
Figure 1: Approval of Trump’s Handling of Issues
Source: AP-NORC
