AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude has reversed earlier ~2% losses and moved higher

• Crude markets are edging lower, although the market lacks a clear trajectory. Concerns of weaker economic growth from looming US tariffs weigh against sanction threats against buyers of Russian and Iranian oil.
• WTI May 25 is down by 0.5% at $71.1/bbl.
• US reciprocal tariffs are to be announced on Wednesday. Press secretary Leavitt said that there would be “no exemptions at this time”.
• From a technical perspective, the sharp rally in WTI futures yesterday undermines the medium-term bearish condition and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
• This rally has exposed the next key resistance at $72.91, the Feb 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme.
• On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $68.99, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a potential reversal.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has retreated from a fresh record high, with the yellow metal currently 0.2% lower on the session at $3,118/oz.
• Earlier in the session, gold had risen to a new high of $3,149 ahead of President Trump's trade tariffs announcement tomorrow. Gold remains 19.5% higher YTD, amid concerns over mounting geopolitical and trade tensions.
• The trend condition in gold remains bullish, with sights on $3,151.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3,015.6, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

• RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg    
• RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 150.90/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28  
• RES 1: 150.27 High Mar 31 
• PRICE: 149.33 @ 16:01 BST Apr 1 
• SUP 1: 148.70 Low Mar 31    
• SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 147.42 Low Mar 13   
• SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger 

USDJPY is trading below last week’s high. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 150.86 - is intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.  

Morning Consult reports: “Ahead of Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariff rollout on Wednesday, Trump’s approval ratings on trade have dipped underwater (45% approve vs. 47% disapprove) for the first time as more voters than not continue to disapprove of his handling of the broader economy.”

• AP-NORC reports: “It’s been over two months since Donald Trump retook office. Perceptions of his performance are mixed, especially when compared with his first term. About half of adults approve of how Trump is handling immigration, exceeding his approval on the issue during his first term. But 40% approve of his handling of the economy, dropping to its lowest level since December of 2017.”

Figure 1: Approval of Trump’s Handling of Issues 

Source: AP-NORC