AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude ended with a gain in volatile trade
May-19 18:34
May 19 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI crude ended with a gain in volatile trade, initially rallying in reaction to the Trump-Putin call offset by weaker data from China in addition to concerns regarding the strength of the US economy against the prospect of increased sanctions on Russia and a lower oil price cap.
- The EU will propose to G7 finance ministers this week to lower Russia’s $60/bbl price cap to $50/bbl Reuters reports citing EU officials.
- US President Trump spoke by phone to Russian President Putin for more than two hours about an end to the war in Ukraine. Trump also said he talked with Ukrainian President Zelensky and some NATO leaders.
- U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said on May 18 that any deal between the US and Iran must include an agreement not to enrich uranium.
- China's crude oil throughput fell 1.3% on the year to 58.03m tons in April amid maintenance at state refineries and with poor margins weighing on independent refiners.
- China’s April industrial production data showed a 1.5% y/y rise in crude production but 8.1% y/y in natural gas. Apparent oil demand fell 5.6% to 13.83mb/d in April, Bloomberg showed.
- China’s crude oil surplus in April rose for a second month to 1.89mb/d compared to 1.74mb/d the previous month, according to Reuters calculations.
- VLCC Andromeda is set to discharge Venezuelan crude oil on India’s west coast for Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar Refinery, Bloomberg reports citing Kpler analytics.
- The material unwinding of OPEC+’s voluntary supply cuts and a softer-than-expected refinery demand profile across several key economies has loosened the supply-demand outlook, Kpler says.
- Goldman Sachs said it is keeping a cautious outlook for oil prices in its latest note. The bank cites pressure from likely elevated Iranian supply and higher OECD commercial inventories being offset against stronger global GDP growth.
- US cracks are weaker amid demand-side concerns with ULSD and RBOB futures lower despite gains in crude.
- WTI June futures were up 0.3% at $62.69
- WTI July futures were up 0.2% at $62.12
- RBOB Jun futures were down 0.2% at $2.14
- ULSD Jun futures were down 0.6% at $2.13
- US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 27.15$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.6$/bbl at 26.75$/bbl
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CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
Apr-19 13:51
- CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
- CARNEY SEES 2025-26 BUDGET DEFICIT OF CAD62.3B OR 2% OF GDP
- CARNEY PLANS TO REACH 2% NATO TARGET BEFORE 2030
- CARNEY SEES NEW CAD10B ANNUAL PLAN FOR GREEN TRANSITION BONDS
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
