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EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension

Dec-16 18:00
  • RES 4: 1.1919 - High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance   
  • RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18 
  • RES 2: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.1804 High Dec 16
  • PRICE: 1.1769 @ 16:18 GMT Dec 16
  • SUP 1: 1.1649 20-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 1.1591 Low Dec 2 
  • SUP 3: 1.1556 Low Nov 26
  • SUP 4: 1.1491 Low Nov 21 

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce this theme. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlighted a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.1813 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 1.1649, the 20-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear breach of the EMA would be bearish and signal a possible reversal.

LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, Fed Speak, 20Y Re-Open

Dec-16 17:54
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
  • 12/17 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (4.8%, --)
  • 12/17 0815 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
  • 12/17 0830 Chicago Fed CARTS Retail Indicator
  • 12/17 0900 Manheim Used Vehicle Prices
  • 12/17 0905 NY Fed Williams opening remarks FX conf, livestreamed
  • 12/17 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
  • 12/17 1230 Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated discussion (no text)
  • 12/17 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond re-open (912810UQ9)
  • Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

OPTIONS: Limited Trade Includes Sonia Upside Buying Between Key UK Data Points

Dec-16 17:52

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • RXG6 126.50/124.50ps, bought for 27.5 in 6k
  • ERM6 97.87/97.81ps vs 98.00/98.06cs, bought the ps for flat in 7.5k
  • SFIZ6 96.90/97.00cs vs 96.30/96.20ps, bought the cs for half in 3k