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May-29 17:01

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EURUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

Apr-29 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
  • RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
  • RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.1394 @ 16:21 BST Apr 29
  • SUP 1: 1.1308 Low Apr 23
  • SUP 2: 1.1236 20-day EMA and a key support    
  • SUP 3: 1.1144/0986 High Apr 3 / 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
  • SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

Short-term weakness in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1236. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE, Home Sales

Apr-29 16:57
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 30-Apr 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-12.7%, --)
  • 30-Apr 0815 ADP Employment Change (155k, 115k) 
  • 30-Apr 0830 US Tsy quarterly refunding annc
  • 30-Apr 0830 Personal Consumption (4.0%, 1.2%)
  • 30-Apr 0830 GDP Price Index (2.3%, 3.1%)
  • 30-Apr 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (2.4%, 0.3%)
  • 30-Apr 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.6%, 3.2%)
  • 30-Apr 0830 Employment Cost Index (0.9%, 0.9%)
  • 30-Apr 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (47.6, 45.9)
  • 30-Apr 1000 Personal Income (0.8%, 0.4%); Spending (0.4%, 0.6%)
  • 30-Apr 1000 PCE Price Index MoM (0.3%, 0.0%), YoY (2.5%, 2.2%)
  • 30-Apr 1000 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.1%), YoY (2.8%, 2.6%)
  • 30-Apr 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (2.0%, 1.0%), YoY (-7.2%, -5.6%)
  • 30-Apr 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction

OPTIONS: European Rates See Call Buying, Outrights And Spreads

Apr-29 16:52

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • ERU5 98.56c, bought for 3.25 in 6k
  • ERU5 98.50/98.625cs vs 97.9375/97.8125ps, bought the cs for 0.75 in 5k
  • ERH6 98.5625/98.1875ps 1x2, bought for 5.5 in 5k
  • SFIZ5 96.80/97.10cs vs 2NZ5 96.90/97.20cs, bought the front for 0.25 in 9k