EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Whirlpool: S&P moves to neg. outlook
(WHR; Ba1 Neg/BB+ Neg now/BB+ Neg)
- Cites FY guidance cut that is now flat y/y. Notes Asian competitors front-loading tariffs could see supply overhang as far into 2026 depending on tariff timings - notes China reciprocal tariffs paused till Aug-12.
- Mgmt. estimated 2-3 months excess inventory in the market but that was as at May.
- Notes dividend cut is marginal credit positive as it frees $200m/yr in cash.
- Sees Whirlpool India {WHIRL IS Equity} sale to pay down $700m of debt being potentially delayed into 2026.
- Mgmt said "significant interest from large third parties" and was still targeting a close around end of this year.
- Net of above sees leverage remaining at 5x now to end this year (prev. exp. 4.5x) and mid 4x next year (vs. prev. 4.3x).
- Downgrade threshold is 4.5x and was 5.2x to end last year at S&P.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $36.854 @ 08:11 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: $36.138 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $35.016/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
A bull cycle in Silver remains intact. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.138, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.016, the 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: The German 10yr Yield is testing that 2.671% level
- Treasuries are getting dragged by {ge} German Govies, Bund is sold in 5k through the low, but so far still finding some support at the 2.671% mark.
- As noted on the Bund Open, and with no data for the Session, supply is at the forefront on both sides of the Pond. Netherlands, Bobl and US 3yr are due Today.
- Next support in Bund would be at 2.701% which equates to 129.43 Today.
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3685/3766 High Jul 7 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3651 @ 08:08 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3766, is intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
