ENERGY: What to Watch: Rig Counts & COT
- The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET. The US oil rig count held last week at the highest since early October at 482 while the gas rig count was the highest since May at 103.
- The ICE and Nymex commitments of traders reports are due for release after the close today at 18:30BST and 15:30ET. Money managers decreased net long crude positions last week with a drop in WTI more than offsetting slightly higher Brent positions. Net long fund positioning for ICE Gasoil has fallen from the recent high seen in late November while the Nymex diesel net short position increased again, and Nymex gasoline net longs rose.
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SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.566 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30.908 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 20
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Medium-term bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.603, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4249 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4132 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3962 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 20
- SUP 1: 1.3923 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3811 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that initial firm support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3923, remains intact. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.4106, the Nov 15 high, where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: German PPI ex-Energy Slightly Firmer in October
German PPI fell by 1.1% Y/Y in October, remaining below consensus expectations of -1.1% Y/Y but ticking up vs September’s -1.4% Y/Y.
- Consistent with German CPI in October, energy deflation was less prominent than before, at -5.6% Y/Y (vs -6.6% prior), driving the headline rate higher.
- That leaves ex-energy PPI slightly firmer than before, at 1.3% Y/Y - compares to September's +1.2%, and the highest rate since August 2023.
- Looking at the non-energy categories, there was relatively little movement, except for non-durable goods - that category ticked up considerably, to 1.9% Y/Y (vs 1.5% Sep), continuing its uptrend in place since 8 months.
