US TSYS: What to Watch: Headline Employment Report for July
Aug-04 12:05
- Main focus on employment report for July coming up at 0830ET. Median estimate from 72 economists surveyed by Bbg is +200k with a range of 150k-300k (StD 31.27k); Bbg's "whisper" number is slightly higher at +223k.
- AHE is seen moderating to 0.3% M/M although it doesn’t take much from an unrounded 0.36% M/M, along with no change in average hours worked. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.6% but can easily surprise lower from 3.57% with a decent share of analysts expecting such a move.
Back to summer trade with no data points after NFP, n - Back to summer trade with no data points after NFP, no scheduled Fed speakers either. Slow start to next week with the first significant data release next Thursday with CPI and weekly Claims.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Jul-05 12:04
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 5.06%, $1.579T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 5.05%, $575B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 5.05%, $565B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP634.059mln of the 3.50% Oct-25 Gilt sold
Jul-05 12:02
- A total of GBP1.0bln had been available.
- This leaves GBP21.66bln of the gilt in issue.
US TSYS: What to Watch: June FOMC Minutes, Factory Orders, Durables
Jul-05 11:59
- US back to normal hours after 4th of July holiday, a lot to get through over the next three days.
- Main focus on June FOMC minutes release this afternoon at 1400ET with attention on degree to which the FOMC was divided over the decision to deliver a “hawkish pause/skip”, and to what degree the communications were crafted in a hawkish direction to appease those who would have preferred to hike at that meeting.
- Scheduled Fed speak later in the afternoon: NY Fed Williams moderated discussion, CB Research Assn at 1600ET
- Midmorning data kicks off at 1000ET with Factory Orders, Durables and Cap goods. The balance of the week includes ADP private employment data at 0815 Thu and Jun NFP on Friday at 0830ET (+225k est vs. +339k prior).
- Treasury auctions resume: $46B 17W bills today at 1130ET followed by $70B 4W and $60B 8W bills tomorrow.
- Of note, Tsy Sec Yellen will be visiting China Thursday, her first as Tsy Secretary and comes after last month’s visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken which was designed to roll back tensions with Beijing and open the door for regular cabinet-level talks.
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