ENERGY: What to Watch: ARA Crude Stocks & US Oil Stocks
- The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week ending April 25 is due for release today at 10:30ET (15:30BST). EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a small draw of 0.79mbbl and with a draw of 1.35mbbl for gasoline, draw of 1.73mbbl for distillates and 0.38 percentage point rise in refinery utilisation, a Bloomberg survey shows.
- The latest Genscape European ARA crude inventories will be released today at 09:00BST. ARA crude storage data last week showed at dip to 51.40mbbl to remain below the previous five-year range for the time of year
| Release | Type | Release date | Release Time |
| EIA weekly oil | weekly | 30-Apr-25 | 10:30 ET |
| Genscape crude ARA inventories | weekly | 30-Apr-25 | 09:00 BST |
| EU GDP fro Q1 | quarterly | 30-Apr-25 | 11:00 CET |
| US GDP fro Q1 | quarterly | 30-Apr-25 | 08:30 ET |
| EIA weekly gas | weekly | 1-May-25 | 10:30 ET |
| Insights product ARA inventories | weekly | 1-May-25 | |
| Singapore oil product stockpile | weekly | 1-May-25 | 08:00 BST |
| S&P Global US manufacturing PMI | monthly | 1-May-25 | 09:45 ET |
| US ISM manufacturing PMI | monthly | 1-May-25 | 10:00 ET |
| Nymex CFTC report | weekly | 2-May-25 | 15:30 ET |
| ICE COT report | weekly | 2-May-25 | 18:30 BST |
| Baker Hughes rig count | weekly | 2-May-25 | 13:00 ET |
| US nonfarm payrolls | monthly | 2-May-25 | 08:30 ET |
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18
- PRICE: 0.6287 @ 08:04 BST Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. A S/T bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
US TSY FUTURES: Screen Buyer Of TU Helps Underpin Rally
Note that a 5K screen lift of TU futures at 103-23 helps underpin the space, even as European equity index futures edge away from lows.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.49 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 31
- SUP 1: 161.13 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.66 50-day EMA and a pivot support
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A bull theme in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness between Mar 18 - 20 appears corrective. This sell-off allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support to watch is 160.66, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
