ENERGY: What to Watch: ARA Crude Stocks & US Oil Stocks

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18 
• PRICE: 0.6287 @ 08:04 BST Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. A S/T bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.

Note that a 5K screen lift of TU futures at 103-23 helps underpin the space, even as European equity index futures edge away from lows.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.49 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 31 
• SUP 1: 161.13 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 160.66 50-day EMA and a pivot support  
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

A bull theme in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness between Mar 18 - 20 appears corrective. This sell-off allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support to watch is 160.66, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.