ENERGY: What to Watch: ARA Crude and US Oil Stocks
- The latest Genscape European ARA crude inventories will be released today at 09:00GMT. Stocks last week fell towards the low end of the previous five year seasonal range to 46.0mbbl.
- The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week ending Jan. 31 is due for release today at 10:30ET (15:30GMT). A Bloomberg survey expects a 1.03mbbl build in U.S. crude stocks, a 0.08mbbl draw in gasoline and a 1.93mbbl draw in distillates with refinery utilisation showing a fall of 0.33 percentage points.
| Release | Type | Release date | Release Time |
| EIA weekly oil | weekly | 5-Feb-25 | 10:30 ET |
| Genscape crude ARA inventories | weekly | 5-Feb-25 | 09:00 GMT |
| EIA weekly gas | weekly | 6-Feb-25 | 10:30 ET |
| Insights product ARA inventories | weekly | 6-Feb-25 | |
| Singapore oil product stockpile | weekly | 6-Feb-25 | 08:00 GMT |
| BOE | monthly | 6-Feb-25 | 12:00 GMT |
| US nonfarm payrolls | monthly | 7-Feb-25 | 08:30 ET |
| MTC Azeri March loading program | monthly | 7-Feb-25 | |
| Nymex CFTC report | weekly | 7-Feb-25 | 15:30 ET |
| ICE COT report | weekly | 7-Feb-25 | 18:30 GMT |
| Baker Hughes rig count | weekly | 7-Feb-25 | 13:00 ET |
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MNI: SPAIN DEC SRVCS PMI 57.3 (FCAST 54.1); NOV 53.1
- MNI: SPAIN DEC SRVCS PMI 57.3 (FCAST 54.1); NOV 53.1
STIR: A Little Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Priced For '25
Weakness in the long end has triggered hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs during early ’25, leaving ~103bp of easing priced through Dec vs. ~105bp late Friday and 115-120bp seen ahead of the Christmas break.
- Euribor futures 2.0 to 4.0 lower.
- ERZ5 ~10 ticks off its early November low.
- Services PMI data (final for Germany, France & the Eurozone) is due today, as is the flash German CPI data.
- Preliminary Eurozone CPI data is due tomorrow. The BBG survey median looks for +2.4% Y/Y for the headline CPI release vs. +2.2% in Nov.
- Our full preview of that release can be found here.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.654 | -26.5 |
Mar-25 | 2.375 | -54.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.178 | -74.1 |
Jun-25 | 2.046 | -87.3 |
Jul-25 | 1.999 | -92.0 |
Sep-25 | 1.936 | -98.3 |
Oct-25 | 1.905 | -101.4 |
Dec-25 | 1.888 | -103.1 |
SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.529 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $29.644 @ 08:11 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
