MARKET INSIGHT: What to Watch: CPI, Atl Fed Bostic, 10Y Note Sale, Oil Sanctions
May-11 11:18
FI trades stronger, near midmorning London session highs on moderate volumes (TYM2>305k), yield curves adding to prior session flattening (2s10s -3.765 at 33.671, 5s30s -.321 at 7.113).
- Economic data on tap at 0830ET
- CPI MoM (1.2%, 0.2%); YoY (8.5%, 8.1%)
- CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.4%); YoY (6.5%, 6.0%)
- CPI Index NSA (287.504, 288.715); Core Index SA (288.811, 289.822)
- Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-2.7%, --); Wkly Earnings YoY (-3.6%, --)
- FED speakers:
- Atlanta Fed Bostic on monetary policy from World Affairs Council of Jacksonville, no text, Q&A at 1200ET
- US Tsy auctions:
- $30B 119-Day bill auction at 1130ET
- $36B 10Y Note auction (91282CEP2) at 1300ET
- Geopol risk: Continued EU Russia oil sanctions pushback from Hungary: "Hungary foreign minister says the only realistic way to an oil embargo on Russia is if it only relates to maritime shipping of oil, pipeline shipments should be fully exempted", Rtrs.
- Separately: Wires reporting that negotiations are underway in Tehran between Iranian and EU teams seeking a last-ditch deal on reviving the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPoA).
- Cross-Asset Roundup: Crude rebounds, West Texas crude back over 100.0 (WTI +3.50 at 103.26); Gold continues to strengthen (+14.40 at 1852.67); SPX holding modest gains (ESM2 +45.0 at 4042.0) earnings winding down.
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EQUITIES: Estoxx option
Apr-11 11:11
SX5E 15th July 3850/3900cs trades 26.2 in ~23.8k
What to Watch: Multiple Fed Speakers Kick Off Short Week
Apr-11 11:08
Rates trading weaker - near early overnight lows after buying emerged early London trade. Tsy curves mixed, 2s10s midly steeper at 17.940 +0.119.
- Decent volumes (TYM2>400k ahead the NY open), no data (aside from NY Fed survey of consumer exp at 1100ET) though several Fed speakers scheduled:
- Atl Fed Bostic open remarks: Fed Listens event in Nashville; Fed Govs' Bowman and Waller closing remarks at same event, 0930ET
- NY Fed John Williams CME/Economic Club of New York event, 1200ET
- Chicago Fed Evans economic outlook, 1240ET
- Tsy auctions: $46B 3Y Monday, $34B 10Y re-open Tuesday, $20B 30Y Bond reopen Wednesday.
- Look ahead: short week with FI markets closing at 1300ET Thursday, closed for Good Friday ahead Easter Sunday.
- Key economic data includes CPI Tuesday (MoM 1.2% est), PPI Wednesday (MoM 1.2% est), Retail Sales Thursday (Adv MoM 0.6%).
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Downside play
Apr-11 11:05
- ERM2 100.12/100ps, bought for 1.25 in 13k
- Covers the June ECB meeting on the 9th June, expiry on the 13th
