NZD: Westpac Have A Bias To Buy NZD/USD On Dips

EURCHF is testing last Friday’s 0.92920 high following the lower-than-expected October inflation print (+0.15% since the data was released). EURCHF has been consolidating just above the 20-day EMA of 0.92780 over the past three sessions. A clear break of this average would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.93079.

• In front-end rates markets, the Dec ’26 SARON future is up ~1 tick since the data was released. Although markets price a ~50% implied probability of another cut across the next 12 months, the bar to a move back into negative territory in the short-term looks to be fairly high. SNB’s Tschudin said last week that it is ok if inflation moves below 0% for a "short time".
• Core CPI was 0.5% Y/Y in October, below the 0.7% consensus and prior. Headline inflation was 0.1% Y/Y (vs 0.3% cons, 0.2% prior). A reminder that the SNB’s latest conditional inflation forecast for Q4 2025 is 0.4%.
• Imported inflation looks soft again, falling 1.3% Y/Y (vs -0.9% in September, -1.3% in August). Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation fell 0.5% Y/Y (vs -0.8% prior), while goods inflation was -1.6% for the second consecutive month. Although the CHF real effective exchange rate has weakened through the second half of October, the lagged impact of CHF strength since April still looks to be weighing on imported price pressures.
• Services inflation also softened relative to September, printing at 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior). The volatile package holidays component looks to have played an important role though, rising 0.3% Y/Y (vs 4.8% prior).  

Gilt Opening calls, 93.52/93.74.

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6664 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6618 High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6553 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: 0.6533 Low Oct 30 and 31
• SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24  
• SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a key support   

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and last Wednesday’s fresh high reinforces current conditions. The break higher signals scope for 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that support at 0.6545, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would undermine the current bullish phase. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective