AUSTRALIA DATA: Westpac Consumer Details Mixed, Spending Rise Not A Given
The details of the November Westpac consumer confidence survey are mixed signalling that there could be payback in December. It rose despite lower sentiment amongst mortgage holders as a group and less optimism regarding the labour market outlook but stronger domestic growth and less risk from US tariffs seemed to have driven the rebound into net optimism territory.
- Westpac asked about Christmas spending intentions and 15% said they would spend more than last year up from 11.6% in November 2024 with around 35% planning to spend less, similar to 2024. Westpac describes the responses as “less restrained” than 2024. It shows that the jump in confidence translating into strong spending is not assured.
- Family finances improved with expectations for a year ahead +12.3% to 109.1, significantly stronger than compared to a year ago, which Westpac believes was helped by the RBA not discussing a hike on 4 November despite the surprisingly high Q3 CPI. But 76% of respondents after the RBA decision to keep rates on hold expect rates to be on hold or higher in a year up from 60% in October.
- The economic outlook for the next year and 5 years rose 16.6% and 15.3% respectively and are above their historical averages. But unemployment expectations jumped 9.3% to 139.5 driven by 18-24 year olds and the unemployed. The RBA sees the youth unemployment rate as a lead indicator of the labour market (October prints 13 November).
- The “time to buy a major item” rose 14.9% m/m to 111.6, highest in four years.
Australia Westpac unemployment expectations
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG/ABS
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
