EU FINANCIALS: Wells Fargo (WFC) - Q1 Earnings
Slight credit negative. Not bad but behind expectations.
- NII of $11.5bn is -1.1% QoQ and -3.4% YoY. Hit by lower NIM and lower loans outstanding (CRE and resi mortgages)
- NIM of 2.67% is well below expectations of 2.72%
- Non-interest income of $8.6bn is 1.3% higher QoQ and flat YoY
- Consumer was roughly in line with expectations
- Commercial was arguably the worst with revenue much lower (-12% QoQ, -13.2% YoY)
- Trading revenues were higher, but failed to match expectations or peers in fixed income or equities.
- Provisions were lower than expected and vs Q4 by almost $200m, at only $1bn
- CET1 of 11.1% is flat on Q4. Capital generation c43bps, offset by -23bps from higher RWA and the rest from distributions.
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EGBS: GGBs Widen Further As Dual-Tranche Syndication Catches Many Off Guard
10- & 30-year GGBs ~2bp wider vs. Bunds since the syndication announcement flagged earlier.
- The syndication announcement seems to have come as a bit of a surprise to the market and it wasn’t one that we had on our radar.
- We will update on our thoughts surrounding the likely size of the dual-tranche syndication (which is complimented by buybacks) in due course.
EQUITIES: Program seller helps Indices to session low
Small Program seller with 997 names, combined with 2k seller in the Nasdaq futures (NQH5) is pushing Equities through their lows on both sides of the Atlantic.
The range in the Emini has seen a 1.84% swing range so far today, but compared to what has been witnessed of late, this is still a more contained move.
We have not seen any new driver, but the uncertainty on the tariffs front going forward are keeping Investors on edge or on the sidelines.
The Emini printed a 5534.00 low Yesterday, but main initial support is at 5499.25, the September low.
BOC: Macklem: "Did Not Seriously Consider" Cutting By 50bp
Asked by MNI if the BOC considered cutting by 50bp, Gov Macklem says: "the short answer your question is, we did not seriously consider a cut of 50 basis points", and cautions that they will "proceed carefully" with any further rate changes.
- He suggests that (per MNI's preview) solid incoming data which otherwise might have caused a rate hold to be considered had to be weighed against a deteriorating future outlook: "what we see from the hard data so far still looks good. You can't see much of damage from the trade war and the hard data yet, but when you look at the survey data, it's pretty clear consumer confidence, business confidence, has been sharply affected, and we are expecting to see a pullback in household spending and business investment that's going to have an impact in the economy. And that's really why we decided to cut 25 basis points."
- "Monetary policy does need to be forward looking, but there is a lot of uncertainty. This is a very fluid situation. There is a lot of unpredictability in terms of what the US is going to do, and as we've outlined time and again, a trade war. Yes, it weakens growth, but it will also increase prices and inflation. We've got to be very careful to balance those two. So against that background, we did not want to get ahead of ourselves, and we're going to be assessing these things carefully. That's going to take some time, and our message really is that we will proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate."
