OIL: Weekly Russian Crude Shipments Rebound
Russia’s four-week average seaborne crude shipments increased 90kb/d in the week to Aug. 31 to 3.15mb/d, according to Bloomberg.
- The weekly supply rebounded by about 770kb/d to 3.49mb/d driven by a rise in loadings from almost all Russian ports.
- The volume of crude heading to China rose to a five-month high of 1.28mb/d while to India was down by about one-third from the March peak.
- Shipments resumed from Sakhalin 2 after a four-week halt, likely due to maintenance, while Ust-Luga flows were partly restored, Bloomberg added.
- Ukrainian drone strike on Russian refineries have reduced processing and prolonged outages could free up more crude for export.
- Russia’s crude processing runs fell to 5.09m b/d through the first 27 days of August, the lowest monthly average since May 2022, nearly 180k b/d below the average for most of July.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Watch AUD on Friday
Of note:
EURUSD 6.01bn at 1.1550/1.1600 (could act as magnet).
EURUSD 4.57bn at 1.1550/1.1600 (tue).
EURUSD 1.1bn at 1.1500 (thu).
USDJPY 1.12bn at 148.50 (thu).
AUDUSD 4.12bn at 0.6500 (fri).
EURUSD 1.52bn at 1.1500 (fri).
EURGBP 2.4bn at 0.8675/0.8700 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1500 (1.61bn), 1.1510 (586mln), 1.1550 (2.15bn), 1.1560 (626mln), 1.1565 (992mln), 1.1575 (375mln), 1.1585 (671mln), 1.1600 (1.2bn).
- USDJPY: 147.50 (350mln), 147.80 (387mln), 148.50 (246mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3790 (451mln).
- USDCNY: 7.1500 (450mln).
EQUITIES: Indices are pulling away from Friday's lows
- European and US Equities are pulling away from Friday's lows, the Estoxx futures plummeted 5% from just Thursday's high to Friday's low, VGU5 is now up 0.77%.
- Looking at a Micro level, the Index is close to where it was trading at pre NFP, although we noted at the time of the Employment release the surprising lack of moves in Equities versus what was witnessed in Bonds, Rates and FX.
- This was most likely because of the already big sell off seen in Equities since Thursday into Friday's Data.
- VGU5 was trading at 5234.00, which is right here, and for the US Emini, it was trading at 6320.00, but fell 3.54% from last Thursday's high at 6468.50.
SWITZERLAND DATA: Transport Services Dragged Up July CPI Print
Looking at the details of the Swiss CPI print, upside momentum from transport and recreation categories stands out (contributing a combined 0.21pp more than in June). Overall it remains that this was the second consecutive positive print in Swiss CPI.
⦁ Transport services (airfares but also "public transport abroad" in particular) and package holidays (part of recreation category) were behind the acceleration here, having seen higher Y/Y prints this time - that might help explain parts of the unusual higher services / imported inflation combination.
⦁ Food inflation meanwhile has fallen this time, contributing 0.06pp less than in June.
⦁ Further details see table / chart below:
