LATAM: Week Ahead: Peru Interest Rate Decision, Brazil Inflation, BCCh Minutes
Feb-07 18:13
- On the monetary policy front, the BCRP will consider another 25bp interest rate cut on Thursday, following the latest dip in CPI inflation. Meanwhile, the BCCh will publish the minutes to its Jan 28 MPC meeting on Wednesday, when it remained on hold and signalled an extended pause. On the data front, January CPI inflation in Brazil (Tuesday) and Argentina (Thursday) are the highlights.
- The BCB releases its usual Focus survey on Monday, which this week showed a slight increase in CPI expectations, as Selic rate forecasts remained stable.
- Brazil IPCA inflation data take the focus on Tuesday, with analysts anticipating a moderation in the headline rate to 4.58% y/y in January, from 4.83%. Mexico December IP figures also cross, while in Chile, the BCCh publishes its economist survey. Following strong activity and CPI data, the easing cycle looks set for an extended pause.
- The BCCh minutes on Wednesday will provide further guidance on the interest rate outlook in Chile, after the unanimous decision to keep rates unchanged last month. Brazil IBGE services volume data and Argentina wages also cross.
- On Thursday, focus turns to the BCRP interest rate decision, where the latest decline of inflation keeps the door open to another cut. Meanwhile, Argentina monthly CPI inflation is expected to slow further in January, while Brazil retail sales are due.
- The BCCh publishes its traders survey on Friday, while Colombia December retail sales, IP and trade are also on the docket.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review: 30Y Bond Re-Open: Small Stop
Jan-08 18:04
Treasury futures climbing higher, USH5 currently 112-07 (+2) after the $22B 30Y auction reopen (912810UE6) stops .7bp through: 4.913% high yield vs. 4.920% WI; 2.52x bid-to-cover vs. 2.39x in the prior month.
- Peripheral measures has indirect take-up 66.63% vs. 66.53% prior; direct bidder take-up 20.71% vs. 19.10% prior; primary dealer take-up 12.66% vs. 14.37% prior.
- The next 30Y auction is tentatively scheduled for February 13.
FED: US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.913%; ALLOT 67.56%
Jan-08 18:02
- US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.913%; ALLOT 67.56%
- US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 12.66% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 20.71% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.63% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.52
US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 30Y Re-Open
Jan-08 17:57
- WI has receded to 4.922% from 4.939% earlier heading into the $22B 30Y auction re-open (912810UE6) cutoff at 1300ET, 38.7bp cheap to last month's tail: 4.535% high yield vs. 4.523% WI.
- Treasury futures still weaker but off session lows (TYH5 -.5 at 108-05), curves steeper: 2s10s +1.047 at 40.019, 5s30s +0.599 at 45.227.
