LATAM: Week Ahead – Banxico Rates, BCB Minutes/QIR, BCCh Minutes
- Mexico: The local calendar is busier next week, with July retail sales and economic activity, and bi-weekly CPI stats all crossing ahead of the Banxico MPC meeting on Thursday. After slowing the easing pace in August, the Board is expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 7.5%, with focus remaining on the guidance for the likelihood of further cuts in subsequent meetings.
- Brazil: The BCB will publish the minutes to this week's Copom meeting on Tuesday, followed by its latest monetary policy report on Thursday, which should clarify whether the central bank has raised its estimate of the output gap or increased its forecast of the neutral interest rate. IPCA-15 inflation data are also due on Thursday.
- Chile: Focus will be on the minutes to the recent BCCh MPC meeting on Friday, when the central bank struck a more hawkish tone while holding rates, amid the persistence of core CPI inflation. Analysts currently see the next rate cut in December. Before the minutes, August PPI inflation stats cross on Wednesday.
- Colombia: July trade and August business confidence figures next week will be among the last ahead of the Sep 30 BanRep MPC meeting, when the central bank is expected to remain on hold.
- Peru: No tier-one data are due next week.
- Argentina: After softer-than-expected Q2 GDP data this week, attention turns to July economic activity next week. Q2 current account stats are also published.
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US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs
- Mirroring late support in German Bund, Treasury futures continue to extend highs in late morning trade, weaker stocks (SPX eminis at 6377.5 -55.0) contributing to the move.
- Tsy Sep 10Y contract +7 at 111-31.5 session high, initial technical resistance at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
- Curves have reversed early flattening to steeper: 2s10s +.237 at 55.847, 5s30s +1.491 at 109.733.
- Focus on this afternoon's July FOMC minutes release at 1400ET.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug21 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.4bln), $1.1625-30(E629mln), $1.1650-70(E1.4bln), $1.1700(E1.6bln), $1.1750(E2.0bln), $1.1800(E3.0bln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.95-00($1.2bln), Y146.70-80($1.8bln), Y151.00($2.5bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6590-00(A$1.8bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5975-80(N$820mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3775($580mln), C$1.3820($625mln)
US: Trump Considering Firing Fed's Cook for Cause, According to Sources
"*TRUMP CONSIDERING FIRING LISA COOK FOR CAUSE: WSJ" - bbg
"President Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud, according to a senior White House official and another person familiar with the matter.
"The Justice Department is probing similar fraud claims against two of the president's most vocal Democratic critics, opening investigations into New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff of California. Attorney General Pam Bondi authorized Ed Martin, head of a working group tasked with reviewing cases against Trump, to use grand juries in Virginia and Maryland to probe separate allegations of mortgage fraud involving Schiff and James, according to a person familiar with the matter."
