LATAM: Week Ahead: BanRep Rates, Lula-Trump Meeting, Chile Activity, Peru CPI
Sep-26 15:45
- Mexico: Following this week’s Banxico rate cut, next week’s calendar is lighter, with August unemployment, remittances and July gross fixed investment figures due over the course of the week.
- Brazil: Focus will be on the potential talk between Presidents Trump and Lula which is expected to happen sometime next week, amid hopes of a softening of tariff measures. On the data front, August outstanding loans, budget balance and unemployment figures are all set to cross, with the unemployment rate seen holding at a multi-year low of 5.6%. The lower house may also vote on the government’s income tax exemption bill.
- Chile: Month-end activity data for August are due, including retail sales, IP and copper production. These will be followed by the IMACEC economic activity index on Wednesday, when activity is expected to dip following a temporary contraction in mining output.
- Colombia: BanRep is widely expected to remain on hold at 9.25% for a third consecutive meeting on Tuesday, following recent stronger-than-expected economic activity data and a rebound in headline inflation. The easing cycle is not expected to resume until Q1 2026. The minutes to the MPC meeting follow on Friday.
- Peru: CPI inflation is expected to edge higher in September, from a seven-year low, while remaining well below the midpoint of the BCRP’s 1-3% target range. Core inflation may also tick up, while staying just below the 2% target.
- Argentina: After a busy week, next week’s calendar look calmer, with Q2 current account stats due on Monday and September fiscal data later in the week.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.020%(ALLOT 28.28%)
Aug-27 15:32
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FED: US TSY 1Y-11M FRN AUCTION: HIGH MARGIN 0.195%; ALLOTMENT 77.45%
Aug-27 15:32
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US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper as Tsys Rebound w/ Bunds & Oats
Aug-27 15:23
- Tsy futures have reversed course - extending highs in 2s-10s in the last five minutes, apparently following German Bund and French Oat contracts. No obvious headline driver or block flow, early month-end buying possible.
- Dec'25 10Y contract taps 112-09.5, attention is on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection
- Euro Bund: RXU5 at 129.83 latest is through the second resistance level for the day at 129.78 (50-day EMA). Next up 130.06 (Aug 14 high).
- Tsy curves twist steeper: 2s10s +3.989 at 62.038 (nearing mid-April's 3Y highs).
