LATAM: Week Ahead - Argentina Vote, Mex GDP and Chile & Colombia Rate Decisions
Oct-24 15:44
- Mexico: Trade balance and unemployment data will precede the key preliminary read of Q3 GDP, particularly important given the weak growth profile and the central bank’s emphasis on weak activity throughout the easing cycle. Data is expected to show a -0.6% Y/y reading. Net outstanding loans data for September is also due. Elsewhere, headlines surrounding trade developments with the US will remain in focus following President Sheinbaum describing trade talks as "very advanced.” It is worth highlighting that the 90-day deadline to raise fentanyl-related tariffs to 30% from 25% on US imports from Mexico ends Oct 31.
- Brazil: Monday’s central bank Focus survey of economists will be significant given the latest bi-weekly data showing headline IPCA falling below 5%, and the ongoing importance placed on medium-term expectations by the BCB. Consumer confidence and loans data will precede formal job creation data and budget balance figures for September later in the week.
- Chile: The BCCh is expected to hold the reference rate steady at 4.75% next Tuesday, as the board continues to closely monitor the evolution of core inflation and its fundamentals. Later in the week, unemployment rate data is scheduled before activity data, including copper production, is released on Thursday.
- Colombia: Just September unemployment rate data is due before BanRep is expected to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25% next Friday. Any developments regarding the waning relationship between Presidents Trump and Petro will continue to be a key driver for local assets.
- Peru: There is no major data releases due in Peru next week, placing the focus on the next CI release on November 01. A state of emergency remains in place in the capital, while the interim president has been seeking special powers to immediately address the issues of crime and security in the nation.
- Argentina: All focus on Sunday’s midterms, a race that has garnered more international media and financial market attention than would usually be the case for a partial midterm election. Half the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate are up for election, with the outcome set to have a significant impact on President Javier Milei's ability to pass his policy programme through the legislature.
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FED: US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: HIGH MARGIN 0.200%; ALLOTMENT 44.42%
Sep-24 15:32
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: HIGH MARGIN 0.200%; ALLOTMENT 44.42%
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 28.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 0.89% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 70.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.15
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.805%(ALLOT 60.09%)
Sep-24 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.805%(ALLOT 60.09%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 28.59% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.10% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 65.32% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.93
BOE: Greene due to speak on monetary policy at 17:30BST / 12:30ET
Sep-24 15:25
- Greene is due to speak on Wednesday in a speech entitled ‘Supply shocks and monetary policy’ (17:30) at the University of Glasgow Business School. We don't expect this to be market moving unless Greene says that she no longer believes that rates are restrictive. The text will be released here.
- This would be in contrast to her comments in her appearance ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on 3 September, when she said that "I think there are indications that we're still restrictive, but I'm not convinced that we're meaningfully restrictive. We've been in a rate cutting cycle for, you know, a year now, so it can't go on forever with us also being restrictive."
- Greene was also concerned about inflation persistence while being less concerned about downside risks to the labour market. We would be surprised if she changes this tone today. And we would be very surprised if she supported a November cut following her hawkish dissent in August.
