LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC Policy/Chair Presser Headliner

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 03/30 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (0.2, 1.5)
• 03/30 1030 Fed Chairman Powell moderated discussion, Harvard
• 03/30 1130 US Tsy $89B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
• 03/30 1600 NY Fed Williams on economy
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
   

Hawkish move in EUR STIRs in the time since the European Commission’s economic survey.

• We flagged the potential for increased attention on the data ahead of the release, specifically on the inflation front.
• The press release accompanying the data noted that “press Managers’ selling price expectations were sharply up in all four business sectors, and strikingly so in industry. Selling price expectations moved further beyond their long-term average in all business sectors. Consumers’ perceptions of price developments over the past twelve months increased moderately, but their expectations about price developments for the next twelve months surged”. This triggered the hawkish move.
• ECB-dated OIS pricing 80bp of hikes through year-end vs. ~73bp at one point this morning.
• Euribor futures now 0.5-3.0 firmer on the day.
• Thursday’s high in ERZ6 held, with the contract now 7.0 off highs.
• Monday ECB-speak has been fairly neutral but cognisant of stagflationary risk linked to the Iran conflict.
• National level German inflation data is due later, with the regional level readings seen so far roughly in line with national consensus (+2.6% Y/Y for CPI vs. +1.9% last time out).

• In the equity space, a bear trend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. This opens 6316.61 next, a 3.236 projection of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 6699.10, the 20-day EMA. A bounce would be considered corrective.
• The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been corrective. Note that the S/T trend condition is oversold and a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Key pivot resistance is seen at 5750.39, the 50-day EMA. Scope is seen for an extension towards 5277.64 next, a 1.382 projection of the Mar 5 - 9 - 10 price swing.