LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC, House Starts/Permits, Jobless Claims
* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate) * 18-Jun 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (12.5%, --) * 1...
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STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings On SOFR Strip On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net short setting, long cover and long setting dominating as the SOFR futures strip twist flattened on Friday.
- Net short setting was seen in the very front end, before net long cover was noted in SFRZ5 through M6.
- Net long setting then dominated beyond SFRU6.
| 16-May-25 | 15-May-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,058,780 | 1,032,945 | +25,835 | Whites | +63,591 |
SFRM5 | 1,249,244 | 1,213,288 | +35,956 | Reds | +14,077 |
SFRU5 | 1,090,328 | 1,084,372 | +5,956 | Greens | +46,427 |
SFRZ5 | 1,123,485 | 1,127,641 | -4,156 | Blues | +4,539 |
SFRH6 | 779,118 | 783,855 | -4,737 |
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SFRM6 | 737,016 | 757,676 | -20,660 |
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SFRU6 | 745,767 | 745,326 | +441 |
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SFRZ6 | 899,687 | 860,654 | +39,033 |
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SFRH7 | 706,550 | 686,078 | +20,472 |
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SFRM7 | 603,490 | 584,829 | +18,661 |
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SFRU7 | 378,708 | 376,289 | +2,419 |
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SFRZ7 | 402,562 | 397,687 | +4,875 |
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SFRH8 | 265,697 | 263,003 | +2,694 |
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SFRM8 | 189,836 | 187,909 | +1,927 |
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SFRU8 | 150,891 | 151,507 | -616 |
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SFRZ8 | 164,753 | 164,219 | +534 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gold Still In Play
- On the commodity front, a corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal traded lower last week. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3169.4, has also been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3259.5, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.93, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Leading Index and Five Separate Fed Speakers
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 19-May 0830 Atl Fed Fed Bostic opening remarks financial conf
- 19-May 0845 Fed VC Jefferson keynote remarks, Atl Fed Bostic moderates (text,
Q&A) - 19-May 0845 NY Fed Williams moderated discussion (MBA conf) (no text, Q&A)
- 19-May 1000 Leading Index (-0.7%, -0.9%)
- 19-May 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions
- 19-May 1315 Dallas Fed Logan moderated panel
- 19-May 1330 MN Fed Kashkari moderated Q&A
- 19-May 1445 Atl Fed Bostic on Bloomberg TV
