US STOCKS: Weaker on Last Day of 2025 But Well Bid for the Year
Dec-31 16:22
Major equity indexes are weaker on the last trading day of 2025, yet not far from recent record highs: late October for SPX eminis (7,014.00) and Nasdaq (24,019.99), mid-December for the DJIA (48,886.86).
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 161.83 points (-0.33%) at 48206.14 (+13.28% YoY), S&P E-Mini Futures down 26.5 points (-0.38%) at 6917.75 (+16.84% YoY), Nasdaq down 81.4 points (-0.3%) at 23337.76 (+20.86% YoY).
- Energy and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led declines in late morning trade, oil and gas refiners weighing on the former: EQT Corp -2.31%, Valero Energy -1.84%, Expand Energy -1.66%, Coterra Energy -1.34% and Phillips 66 -1.15%.
- Underperforming Discretionary stocks included: Starbucks -1.20%, Williams-Sonoma -1.13%, Best Buy Co -1.00%, Carvana -0.86% and Domino's Pizza -0.86%.
- Limited advances were reported in Health Care and Financial sector shares, pharmaceuticals and managed care buoyed the former: Molina Healthcare +3.23%, Elevance Health +0.62%, Centene Corp +0.62% and Viatris +0.48%.
- Services related shared supported the Financials sector: Franklin Resources +0.46%, Erie Indemnity +0.28%, FactSet Research Systems +0.25% and Berkshire Hathaway +0.13%.
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FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.747 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
Dec-01 16:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.747 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.300 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
Dec-01 16:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.300 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: BofA Also Call For 25bp Cut Next Week, Terminal View Maintained
Dec-01 16:04
- BofA are the latest to formally switch to calling for the Fed to cut another 25bp next week, after JPMorgan did similar on Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
- They maintain their terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25%, with now two 25bp cuts next year (Jun & Jul) rather than three.
- “We still think the next Fed Chair won't be able to convince the FOMC to cut below 3%. And to be clear, our forecast of additional cuts next year is due to the change in leadership, not our read on the economy. In fact, by cutting rates next week, we think the Fed would increase the risk of pushing policy into accommodative territory, just as fiscal stimulus kicks in.”
- Reasoning for the view change: “(1) the jump in the u-rate to 4.44% in the Sep jobs report; (2) Williams' endorsement of a cut after the data release, until which time markets were leaning toward a hold; (3) weakness in the ADP data and the Beige Book's labor market assessment; and (4) the fact that Chair Powell hasn't pushed back - either directly or via the press - against market pricing of an 80%+ chance of a cut going into the blackout period, which began on Sat.”
- We add add that 4 appears to have been behind a latest drift towards fully pricing a 25bp cut on Dec 10 (22bp at typing) after no sign of push back in media channels over the weekend.
