SWEDEN: Weak Labour Demand Signals From PES Labour Market Report
The Public Employment Service’s (PES) May labour market report does not do enough to push back against market pricing in favour of a 25bp Riksbank cut next Wednesday. The unemployment claims rate was steady at 7.0% for the seventh consecutive month, but monthly vacancies fell to the lowest since September 2020 (-24% Y/Y).
- This pulled the PES vacancies-to-unemployment claims ratio down to a 4-year low of 0.21.
- The softening of labour demand implied by the vacancies data is consistent with the recent fall in the Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employment metric.
- These sources of weakness will be worth monitoring in the coming months, even as unemployment metrics in both the PES and LFS surveys do not point to a renewed deterioration of labour market conditions at this stage.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Northbound
- RES 4: 6000.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5938.25 High Mar 4
- RES 2: 5896.25 76.4% retracement of the Feb 19 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 5876.25 High May 12
- PRICE: 5848.00 @ 07:22 BST May 13
- SUP 1: 5637.98/ 5599.73 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
- SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
- SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support
A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Monday’s strong gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has pierced an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 5896.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5637.98, the 50-day EMA.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly seller
ERN5 98.18/98.37/98.50 broken c fly, sold at 3 in 3k.
WTI TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $66.41/71.76 - High Apr 4 / 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $63.55 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $61.73 @ 07:16 BST May 13
- SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. For now, the corrective cycle remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is $63.55, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger.
