US DATA: Weak Conference Board Consumer Survey Bodes Ill For Labor Market
The December Conference Board consumer survey was weak, echoing its UMichigan counterpart in portraying a deterioration in sentiment at the close of 2025. While the Expectations index was steady at 70.7 (having been upwardly revised from 63.2), the Composite fell to an 8-month low 89.1 from 92.9 prior (upward rev from 88.7) as consumers' Present Situation fell to 116.8 from 126.3 (downwardly revised from 126.9). That's easily the weakest reading for the latter since February 2021, and outside of the pandemic, since 2016.
- Present Situation is "based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions" per the Conference Board, and that assessment has turned increasingly dire. "Net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes."
- The "labor differential" in the December Conference Board survey - possibly the most closely-watched indicator from this report - was its lowest since February 2021 at 5.9, pointing to a continued pickup in the unemployment rate. Recall this is the share of those seeing jobs as "plentiful" (26.7% in December) minus those seeing jobs as "hard to get" (20.8%).
- We took note of the mixed responses that weren't captured in the headline aggregates. Per the report: "consumers’ views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation collapsed into negative territory for the first time in nearly four years. However, expectations for their Family’s Future Financial Situation were the most positive since January of this year."
- On recession expectations: "the share of consumers believing a US recession over the next 12 months is “not likely” edged up to about one-fifth of respondents and those saying recession is “very likely” continued to recede. Still, the largest share of consumers—those anticipating that recession is “somewhat likely”—grew again and the small percentage stating that the US is “already in one” crept higher."
- The report also notes that "Consumers appeared more cautious about plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months."
- The upward revisions to prior were attributed to "responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown" in mid-November.
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RATINGS: Moody's Upgrades Italy To Baa2 From Baa3, Still A Notch Below Others
The Moody's upgrade to Italy's credit rating announced late Friday was the first from the agency since 2002 but shouldn't be considered a major surprise. Among the 3 major ratings agencies, Moody's had the lowest rating on Italy - by two notches (Fitch and S&P both BBB+).
- So this upgrade to Baa2 from Baa3 represents something of a closing of that gap rather than a major breakthrough for Italy.
- From the release:
- "The rating upgrade reflects a consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). It also points to prospects of further policy actions supporting growth and fiscal consolidation beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026. As a result, we expect that Italy's high government debt burden will gradually decline from 2027 onwards."
FED: Heading Into Its Final Weeks, QT Pace Remains At $20B/Month (2/2)
On the asset side of the Fed balance sheet, we saw a $25B drop in assets, of which just $2B could be attributed to QT in one of its final weeks (ends Dec 1).
- Instead it was a $6B drop in dealer repo operations vs a week earlier, and $17B in "other" areas that aren't related directly to monetary policy and typically don't have any significant impact on the size of the balance sheet (such changes are largely due to items such as bank premises, accrued interest, and other accounts receivable.)
- Discount window takeup edged up $0.3B to $6.1B but remains relatively low.
- QT has totaled just under $21B over the last month, around the expected pace, though as noted this will flatline in December with a pickup in net bills as MBS proceeds are rolled over into T-bills.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI & Claims Headline Thanksgiving Week
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Aside, the Fed’s Beige Book should also offer another important update on Wednesday for latest liaison reporting, with no Fedspeak currently scheduled around the holiday and the FOMC media blackout due to start on Saturday, Nov 29.
- As we regularly comment in this weekly publication, Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release.
- PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
