BOE: We didn't learn a lot from the press conference - Nov cut still in play

MPR press conference has concluded.

• Overall not too much new from it.
• Bailey still thinks the direction of Bank Rate is lower - but there's less certainty.
• Both Bailey and Ramsden said they thought Bank Rate was still restrictive.
• Ramsden said that inflation persistence has surprised him which leads to questions about the supply side.
• It's clear that there is focus on headline inflation, and that's going to be a more important driver than just services inflation. The point about food and energy prices being important for consumer inflation expectations was repeated in the press conference.
• Very little guidance on the APF decision in September.
• And Lombardelli didn't want to discuss her own views until she speaks ahead of the TSC in September.
• So all in all, November remains very much in play but it is far from certain. And we will at least know the peak in inflation by then and have a better idea on the pace of labour market easing (and possibly know a little more on fiscal policy depending on the timing of the Budget).
• The main thing we will be watching in future weeks are the comments from the Breeden and any further comments from Bailey and Ramsden. Assuming that Taylor and Dhingra remain on the dovish side we likely need all three of these members to vote for a November cut (unless any of today's dissenters turn more dovish in the interim). Bailey, Breeden and Ramsden do certainty seem like the potential swing members.