EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 17 November
Nov-14 16:04
Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E19.3bln in first round operations, down from E28.7bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the new 12-month Nov 18, 2026 Bubill.
- Also on Monday morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 2.5-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5.5-month Apr 29, 2026 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.5bln of 13/24/28/50-week BTFs: E2.8-3.2bln of the 13-week Feb 18, 2026 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 24-week May 6, 2026 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the new 28-week Jun 3, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 50-week Nov 4, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month May 21, 2025 bills.
- On Wednesday morning, Portugal will look to issue a combined E1.00-1.25bln of the 6-month May 22, 2026 BT and the new 12-month Nov 20, 2026 BT.
- Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to come to the market with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Nov 6, 2026 EU-bill.
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Officials Comment on France's Fiscal Situation
Oct-15 16:03
EU officials comment on France's fiscal situation - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
Oct-15 15:50
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-17+ High Oct 14
- PRICE: 113-13+ @ 16:45 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 112-26 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-16/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 3: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 4: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
Treasuries are holding on to this week’s gains and a bullish theme remains intact. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA at 112-16 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
FOREX: USD Index Weaker Again, Despite Bessent Optimism
Oct-15 15:44
- The USD Index started the session weaker and generally maintained those losses through the London close. Powell's relative easing bias late on Tuesday provided the initial trigger, but the much firmer-than-expected CNY fix from the PBOC also worked against the greenback.
- An appearance at the IMF / World Bank forum helped trigger a brief spell of USD support. Bessent's optimism on growth, laying out the groundwork for US growth akin to the "late 1800's or 1990's" is helping the USD higher at the margins and pressing EURUSD toward flat (thereby erasing the ~40 pip gains at the European open). The better-than-expected Empire Manufacturing print will also be helping.
- US 10y yields finding a base at 4.00% has proved a key catalyst, although markets have looked through the persistent S/T uptrend in equities across Wednesday.
- Focus for the duration of the Thursday session turns to the Australian jobs print for September, expected to show employment change of +20k in the month with an unchanged participation rate. AUD had a quieter Wednesday session, despite Treasury Secretary Bessent talking up the possibility of a longer rare earths trade truce with China. This keeps the near-term picture unchanged after Tuesday's new cycle low. However, Tuesday’s recovery highlights a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle formation. If correct, it signals the end of the bear leg that started Sep 17.
- UK data are also in focus Thursday - with GDP stats as well as industrial and manufacturing production. Ahead of the Thursday print, a late rally in GBP saw GBP/USD rally back to 1.34 on decent volumes. While there was no specific UK newsflow or headlines to drive the move, it helped EURGBP drift into the London finish, closing the gap with the French pension reform-tied rally from earlier in the week.
