EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 17 November

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• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-29   High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 113-17+ High Oct 14  
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-13+ @ 16:45 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: 112-26 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 112-16/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 111-26   Low Aug 26 
• SUP 4: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support 

Treasuries are holding on to this week’s gains and a bullish theme remains intact. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA at 112-16 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support. 

• The USD Index started the session weaker and generally maintained those losses through the London close. Powell's relative easing bias late on Tuesday provided the initial trigger, but the much firmer-than-expected CNY fix from the PBOC also worked against the greenback.
• An appearance at the IMF / World Bank forum helped trigger a brief spell of USD support. Bessent's optimism on growth, laying out the groundwork for US growth akin to the "late 1800's or 1990's" is helping the USD higher at the margins and pressing EURUSD toward flat (thereby erasing the ~40 pip gains at the European open). The better-than-expected Empire Manufacturing print will also be helping.
• US 10y yields finding a base at 4.00% has proved a key catalyst, although markets have looked through the persistent S/T uptrend in equities across Wednesday.
• Focus for the duration of the Thursday session turns to the Australian jobs print for September, expected to show employment change of +20k in the month with an unchanged participation rate. AUD had a quieter Wednesday session, despite Treasury Secretary Bessent talking up the possibility of a longer rare earths trade truce with China. This keeps the near-term picture unchanged after Tuesday's new cycle low. However, Tuesday’s recovery highlights a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle formation. If correct, it signals the end of the bear leg that started Sep 17.
• UK data are also in focus Thursday - with GDP stats as well as industrial and manufacturing production. Ahead of the Thursday print, a late rally in GBP saw GBP/USD rally back to 1.34 on decent volumes. While there was no specific UK newsflow or headlines to drive the move, it helped EURGBP drift into the London finish, closing the gap with the French pension reform-tied rally from earlier in the week.