Today’s Fedspeak sees four different speakers but we focus primarily on NY Fed’s Williams who last spoke Mar 31 and an influential member of the FOMC. Musalem last spoke Apr 9, just before the 90-day pause announcement, whilst Kashkari and Collins have both spoken since. The next major Fedspeak steer is likely to come from Fed Chair Powell however, added to the calendar yesterday for an appearance on Apr 16.
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A better 10-year Bund auction than yesterday's Schatz auction - but still relatively soft.
OI data points to net short setting across most contracts on Tuesday, with FV futures once again seeing the largest positioning swing.
| 11-Mar-25 | 10-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,915,055 | 3,883,551 | +31,504 | +1,243,953 |
FV | 6,245,246 | 6,173,325 | +71,921 | +3,159,198 |
TY | 4,700,117 | 4,698,104 | +2,013 | +130,039 |
UXY | 2,216,680 | 2,227,328 | -10,648 | -952,498 |
US | 1,770,567 | 1,766,363 | +4,204 | +550,412 |
WN | 1,760,309 | 1,759,527 | +782 | +153,333 |
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| Total | +99,776 | +4,284,439 |
The trend structure in Treasury futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. This is reinforced by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The contract has recently pierced resistance at 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Firm support to watch is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.