POLAND: Warsaw Court To Decide On Extradition In Nord Stream Sabotage Case

Oct-17 07:05
  • Warsaw District Court convenes at 10:00BST/11:00CEST to decide on the extradition to Germany of a Ukrainian diving instructor accused of his involvement in the destruction of Nord Stream. Onet reported that the court meeting has been called unusually soon, which would suggest that there is sufficient evidence to reach a verdict. Polish officials signalled their reluctance to extradite the man identified as Volodymyr Z. and stated that it would be against national interest, with PM Donald Tusk noting that 'the problem was not the destruction of Nord Stream 2 but its construction', but they risk reputational and diplomatic costs if they openly refuse to comply with a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) issued by Berlin.
  • The benchmark indicator of core inflation (CPI ex-food and energy) stayed at +3.2% Y/Y in September, above the NBP's +2.5% point-target but within the +/-1pp tolerance band. CPI ex-administered prices remained unchanged at +2.5% Y/Y, but the 15% trimmed mean and CPI ex-volatile prices decelerated by 0.1pp to +2.9% Y/Y and +3.7% Y/Y, respectively.
  • PM Tusk will deliver a speech titled 'War or Peace' at a conference in Sopot tonight.

Historical bullets

GILTS: Opening calls

Sep-17 06:57
  • Gilt calls, 91.45/91.50. 

These DO NOT take the CPI into account, given that Sonia is a tick up, small upside risk, but should be close.

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Sell-Off Exposes Support

Sep-17 06:57
  • RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
  • RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
  • RES 1: 1.3803 20-day EMA 
  • PRICE: 1.3751 @ 07:56 BST Sep 17
  • SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
  • SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
  • SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD this week has resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

US TSY OPTIONS: TYX5 112.50 Puts Lifted

Sep-17 06:54

TYX5 112.50 puts paper paid 0-21 on 4K.