EU REAL ESTATE: Warehouses De Pauw: 9M Results (WDPBB; A3/NR/A-)
Neutral
• EPRA Earnings EUR 263.7m +8% y/y
• Occupancy 97.4% (+10bps vs Q2)
• 2027 targets require additional EUR 558m of investments for which they have the funding in place.
• ND/EBITDA 7.6x; LTV 40.8% as of September. Targets are <8 and <40%.
• NOI yield on new projects 6.7%
• Revaluation +0.5% over 9M is "modest".
• Ambition to grow to a EUR10bn GAV portfolio (8.3bn current)
• Confirms 2025 outlook. Earnings +7% y/y
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Historical bullets
UK DATA: Air fares and package holidays fall back; restaurants / hotels higher
- Looking more at the breakdown air fares contributed -0.17ppt to headline CPI and package holidays -0.03ppt while restaurants and accommodation both added 0.06ppt each.
- The contributions to services are roughly double those.
- There were no real other hugely notable moves.
- So overall, not much in here again to alter expectations of where the peak in CPI will come (which is expected in the September print we will receive next month).
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.43 @ 07:04 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain above their recent lows. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.
UK DATA: Food and services lower than BOE forecasts; petrol higher than BOE
- Relative to the BOE's forecasts headline is in line to the hundredth.
- Food is actually 9 hundredths lower (was 21 hundredths higher last month).
- Energy is in line with consensus but surprised the BOE 44 hundredths to the upside (due to petrol prices).
- This was offset by services being 8 hundredths lower than the BOE forecast at 4.72%Y/Y (vs 4.80%).
