FED: Waller Probably The Pick Of Today’s Heavy Fedspeak

Corrected to "overbought" in the second sub-bullet below:

Spot gold is approaching round number resistance at $3,700, clearance of which would expose Fibonacci projection levels of $3,705.2 (1.382 proj) and $3,744.2 (1.500 proj). A clear bull cycle remains intact, with initial support not seen till $3,614, the Sep 11 low. 

• The sharp rally in gold since mid-August has been a combination of Fed independence concerns (amid the ongoing Lisa Cook saga and the more activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House) and expectations for the resumption of Fed easing. These tailwinds come alongside a backdrop of persistent, relatively price-insensitive, central bank demand.
• Spot has been in overbought territory on a 14-day RSI basis since the start of September, but this has not restricted the recent rally so far.
• Positioning metrics (as of last Tuesday) are unsurprisingly extending further into net long territory, but the indicators we track are still not at historically stretched levels (see charts).
• The signals emanating from tomorrow’s Fed decision present the main near-term risk for gold. Although spot price action has diverged from real US rates since 2022, lower yields should benefit non-yielding bullion on a relative basis going forward. 

Spot gold is approaching round number resistance at $3,700, clearance of which would expose Fibonacci projection levels of $3,705.2 (1.382 proj) and $3,744.2 (1.500 proj). A clear bull cycle remains intact, with initial support not seen till $3,614, the Sep 11 low. 

• The sharp rally in gold since mid-August has been a combination of Fed independence concerns (amid the ongoing Lisa Cook saga and the more activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House) and expectations for the resumption of Fed easing. These tailwinds come alongside a backdrop of persistent, relatively price-insensitive, central bank demand.
• Spot has been in overbought territory on a 14-day RSI basis since the start of September, but this has not restricted the recent rally so far.
• Positioning metrics (as of last Tuesday) are unsurprisingly extending further into net long territory, but the indicators we track are still not at historically stretched levels (see charts).
• The signals emanating from tomorrow’s Fed decision present the main near-term risk for gold. Although spot price action has diverged from real US rates since 2022, lower yields should benefit non-yielding bullion on a relative basis going forward. 

2RX5 97.6875/97.8125cs vs 3RX5 97.5625/97.6875cs, bought the 2yr for 1.75 in 4k.