US NATGAS: Waha Natgas Fundamentals

Jun-23 18:07

Production from the Permian Basin is currently 20.9bcf/d, up around up around 0.5%, or 108 mmcf/d, on the day. This compares to a 30-day average of 20.41 bcf/d.

  • EPNG's maintenance schedule showed offline capacity today at 6.158 bcf/d compared to 7.059 bcf/d Friday.
  • US Gulf end user demand is at 17.32bcf/d, up by around 0.96bcf/d on the day. Demand is 0.8bcf/d above the 30-day average.
  • Texas' cumulative CDD count for the coming two weeks is 19 above normal, according to GFS. El Paso’s CDD count for the next 14 days is 15 below normal.
  • Exports to Mexico from West Texas are stable today at 2.02bcf/d. This compares to 2.02 bcf/d the previous day and the 30-day average of 2.02 bcf/d.
  • All flow numbers are from Bloomberg and are updated during the day. Current figures are as of the time of publishing.

Historical bullets

JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows

May-23 22:45
  • RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
  • RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
  • RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
  • SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
  • SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
  • SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. 

US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit

May-23 20:54

Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.

  • Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
  • Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
  • For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
image

US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash

May-23 20:35

Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier. 

  • The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
  • With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
  • Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
image