US NATGAS: Waha Natgas Fundamentals
Jun-06 18:19
Production from the Permian Basin is currently 20.3bcf/d, up around up around 1.5%, or 301 mmcf/d, o...
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US TSYS: Extending Highs
May-07 18:17
- Treasury futures are pulling higher, curves mixed as Bonds start to speed up: 2s10s -1.628 at 49.145, 5s30s+.381 at 90.510.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures currently +11 at 111-21 vs. -22 high (10Y yld at 4.2635%), initial technical resistance well above at 112-01.5 (High May 2). For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
- Stocks mixed -- the Dow still outperforming while SPX and Nasdaq extend lows:
- DJIA up 21.99 points (0.05%) at 40850.22
- S&P E-Mini Future down 25.75 points (-0.46%) at 5601.25
- Nasdaq down 172.4 points (-1%) at 17518.89
FED: Only Modest Changes In FOMC Statement
May-07 18:15
- Not much by way of meaningful changes in the FOMC statement, with arguably the most notable being risks have risen for both higher unemployment and higher inflation rather than a more one-sided focus on inflation.
- See the statement comparison here.
- That shouldn’t be too surprising though, recall from Powell on Apr 16: “The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
- The focus on underlying solid pace in economic activity (looking through net trade swings) is also unsurprising.
- One question is to what extent Powell offers the following from his Apr 16 comments in the press conference in 20mins: “I do think we'll be moving away from" the dual mandate goals “probably for the balance of this year. Or at least not making any progress, and then we'll resume that progress as we can."
- Barring expectations of those looking for a less symmetric skew to risks, the further rally in rates could be a continuation of the reaction to Trump tariff comments shortly beforehand, including: “*TRUMP UNWILLING TO LOWER TARIFFS TO GET CHINA TO THE TABLE” - bbg
FOREX: USDJPY Slips Back Below 143.00 Following Fed Decision/Statement
May-07 18:11
- Supportive price action for treasuries weighing on the USD since the release of the statement. While the Fed maintains its view that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace, the dovish caveats of uncertainty increasing further and risks of higher unemployment provide some pressure on the greenback.
- The downward pressure for equities particularly weighing on USDJPY, which pares intra-day gains and slides back below the 143.00 handle. Overnight lows remain further out, in the 142.40 region.
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