OIL: WAF Oil Flows East to Stay Elevated: Energy Aspects
Sep-11 09:42
WAF’s elevated crude sales to Asia are set to “continue through the remainder of the current trade cycle until autumn Atlantic basin turnarounds wind down,” Energy Aspects analyst Richard Jones told Bloomberg.
- WAF grades are pricing favourably into Asia and the region’s Atlantic procurement is looking strong with “arbs firmly open for year-end arrivals east of Suez, in part supported by a narrow EFS”.
- Jones added that Energy Aspects expects the Brent-Dubai EFS to remain narrow at the prompt this cycle: maintenance at refineries west-of-Suez will pressure Brent while Dubai will be supported by OPEC+ exports lagging production unwinds and Chinese SPR buying.
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BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/12-Month TCs
Aug-12 09:37
| Type | Short TC | Long TC |
| Maturity | Nov 13, 2025 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.222bln | E1.98bln |
| Target | E2.8-3.2bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.2bln | E806mln |
| Avg yield | 1.916% | 1.966% |
| Previous | 1.919% | 1.948% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.27x | 1.57x |
| Previous | 2.28x | 2.62x |
| Previous date | Aug 05, 2025 | Aug 05, 2025 |
FOREX: GBP Improves as Jobs Data Not as Poor as Feared
Aug-12 09:31
- UK jobs data came in broadly inline with expectations however, looking through the headlines may suggest more limited space with which the BoE can ease policy into year-end, largely due to the decelerating pace of job losses and a surprisingly sticky unemployment rate for the June release.
- GBP has improved as a result, and is firmer against all others in G10. GBP/USD is testing yesterday's 1.3477 high for direction and clearance here would mark the highest rate since late July - marking a resumption of the bounce off early August's pullback low. The next notable upside level is the 1.3502 50-dma, a level that could prove consequential into Thursday's prelim Q2 GDP numbers.
- US CPI is the focus going forward, with markets expecting both Y/Y and Y/Y core to inch higher by 0.1ppts apiece. Despite firmer inflation, the numbers are not expected to deter the FOMC from trimming the policy rate at the September FOMC meeting - but a much firmer reading today could limit the scope for further cuts into year-end.
- AUD is softer on the RBA rate decision. AUD/USD has extended losses on the break back below the 50-dma, with 0.6468 the next level of note. The Bank cut rates by 25bps to 3.60%, and signaling strongly that further easing would follow. EUR/AUD has snapped yesterday's weakness as a result, making layered resistance at 1.7945 the focus.
- Central bank speakers today include Fed's Barkin and Schmid.
SOFR OPTIONS: Outright Midcurve Call Buyer
Aug-12 09:31
0QZ5 98.00c, bought for 2 in 11k.
