OIL: WAF Crude Cargo Overhang Weighs: Reuters

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3468 @ 19:58 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.3463 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 1.3433 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 1.1748 @ 19:44 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.1727/64 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and S/T weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is1.1664. the 50-day EMA.

The FOMC's assessments of risks to its updated forecasts in September tilted a little more pessimistic on growth and unemployment than in the previous edition in June, in keeping with concerns expressed in the Statement about rising risks to the labor market. 

• The diffusion index of participants' risk weightings for unemployment ticked up to 0.79 from 0.74 prior, elevated but well below the 0.89 seen in March (when tariff announcements were imminent). And conversely for GDP growth, they ticked down to -0.63 from -0.58 prior, again down from -0.95.
• The latest index showed 0.63 on core PCE, lowest since September 2024, down from 0.95 in March and 0.74 in June.
• This effectively means that the vast majority of the Committee sees risks to their unemployment forecasts as weighted to the upside, with a good number seeing the same for core PCE, and - to the downside - GDP.
• Having upgraded the medians for growth and inflation and lowered the unemployment rate forecast at this meeting, the expressed risks may simply be hedging against the direction of those changes.
• Even so, this is a less pessimistic balance of risks than late 2022/early 2023 when the Fed was still hiking - its core PCE/unemployment concerns were even more tilted to the upside, with GDP seen potentially weaker.
• (The Fed describes the methodology for these indices: "For each SEP, participants provided responses to the question “Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.” Each point in the diffusion indexes represents the number of participants who responded “Weighted to the Upside” minus the number who responded “Weighted to the Downside,” divided by the total number of participants. Figure excludes March 2020 when no projections were submitted.")