US: VP Vance Speaks At CPAC
Feb-20 15:56
Vice President JD Vance speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland (live stream here). Vance claims that budget bill negotiations "are going well, but it is early". Adds that there is "a lot more work to do on inflation."
- Vance talks about his controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference last week. Says that the greatest threat to Europe is illegal immigration. Goes on to say that the US' alliance with Europe "depends on whether we take our societies in the right direction."
- On the war in Ukraine and talks with Russia Vance asks "How are you going to end the Ukraine war if you don't talk to Russia." Adds "I believe we are on the cusp of peace in Europe for the first time in three years."
- President Donald Trump is set to deliver the keynote address on Saturday 22 Feb. Other prominent speakers include House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Attorney General Pam Bondi and Trump “border tsar” Tom Homan.
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FOREX: EURUSD Back Above 1.0400, Monitoring Clear Break of Trendline Resistance
Jan-21 15:55
- EURUSD has been trading with a supportive tone across the US session and has risen back above 1.0400 in latest dealings. Elevated levels for major equity indices have likely been supportive of the broader dollar offer, while the lack of concrete details on tariffs for Eurozone countries may be bolstering the single currency relief rally.
- We have noted that the bounce so far appears corrective in nature, however, the latest bullish developments are being monitored closely. Most notably, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high.
- A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461, which closely coincides with the October 2023 low of 1.0448. Clearance of these levels would strengthen a bullish condition and would signal scope for a greater recovery to 1.0568, the Dec 10 high.
- Aside from Trump related risks, the Eurozone data calendar is headlined by the January flash PMIs on Friday. Data will help set the tone for sentiment heading into 2025, with questions still remaining around the likely pace and magnitude of ECB rate cuts later this year.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan22 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jan-21 15:47
- EUR/USD: $1.0345-50(E3.1bln), $1.0375(E826mln), $1.0400(E1.0bln), $1.0500(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y154.50-60($1.1bln), Y155.50($1.3bln), Y156.45($555mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6210(A$2.1bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4500($829mln)
EURIBOR: Mixed Positioning Adjustments In Euribor Futures On Monday
Jan-21 15:40
OI data suggests a mix of positioning adjustments in Euribor futures on Monday, as markets assessed the likely outcomes of yesterday evening’s inauguration. The strip twist flattened yesterday, with future -0.5 to +1.0 ticks through the blues.
- The largest net pack positioning swing was seen in the whites, where indicative short setting was seen in H5, M5 and Z5 futures.
- A mix of long setting and short cover dominated in the reds, greens and blues.
| 20/01/2025 | 17/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 632,332 | 619,574 | +12,758 | Whites | +20,663 |
| ERM5 | 690,882 | 684,320 | +6,562 | Reds | +6,226 |
| ERU5 | 508,568 | 508,662 | -94 | Greens | -5,176 |
| ERZ5 | 671,141 | 669,704 | +1,437 | Blues | -1,589 |
| ERH6 | 404,761 | 405,566 | -805 | ||
| ERM6 | 334,283 | 330,503 | +3,780 | ||
| ERU6 | 272,064 | 271,353 | +711 | ||
| ERZ6 | 284,522 | 281,982 | +2,540 | ||
| ERH7 | 163,600 | 168,609 | -5,009 | ||
| ERM7 | 127,802 | 128,388 | -586 | ||
| ERU7 | 99,111 | 100,505 | -1,394 | ||
| ERZ7 | 130,490 | 128,677 | +1,813 | ||
| ERH8 | 53,911 | 53,367 | +544 | ||
| ERM8 | 44,479 | 44,457 | +22 | ||
| ERU8 | 22,284 | 23,384 | -1,100 | ||
| ERZ8 | 39,655 | 40,710 | -1,055 |
