AUTOMOTIVE: Volkswagen (VW: Baa1/BBB+/A- neg) 1Q Deliveries

A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.54, the 50-day EMA. Gold is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2823.8. The 50-day average marks a key support.

• WTI Crude up $0.02 or +0.03% at $67.09
• Natural Gas up $0.21 or +4.73% at $4.61
• Gold spot down $9.6 or -0.33% at $2899.23
• Copper down $4.45 or -0.94% at $466.5
• Silver down $0.18 or -0.56% at $32.3488
• Platinum down $1.47 or -0.15% at $967.77

The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 5306.33. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle next. A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present following last week’s move lower that reinforced a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Friday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. The focus is on 5658.00, the Sep 12 2024 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5993.68, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 141.1 pts or +0.38% at 37028.27 and the TOPIX ended 7.83 pts lower or -0.29% at 2700.76.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 6.383 pts or -0.19% at 3366.163 and the HANG SENG ended 447.81 pts lower or -1.85% at 23783.49.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 20.57 pts or -0.09% at 22984.83, FTSE 100 lower by 17.86 pts or -0.21% at 8660.93, CAC 40 up 8.01 pts or +0.1% at 8128.81 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 12.06 pts or -0.22% at 5456.35.
• Dow Jones mini down 392 pts or -0.92% at 42450, S&P 500 mini down 63.5 pts or -1.1% at 5712.75, NASDAQ mini down 252.25 pts or -1.25% at 19979.

Some block flow going through in German futures in recent trade, best guess is buying given direction of travel:

• DUM5 21.6K lots blocked at 106.615
• OEM5 3.6K lots blocked at 116.940 and 3.6K lots blocked at 116.950.