PRECIOUS METALS: Volatility Still Acute, CME Margin Hike May Be Weighing
Volatility in precious metals has resumed today, with spot silver down 5.5%, platinum down 7% and palladium down 3.5%. Gold has exhibited a touch more resilience, only 1.3% lower at typing. Both gold and silver have unwound yesterday's recovery rallies.
- Silver remains above the $70/oz figure, having tested Monday’s $70.5 low this morning. The first important support to watch lies at $66.356, the 20-day EMA. For now, the pullback from all-time highs of over $80/oz is considered corrective.
- Gold meanwhile has pierced the 20-day EMA, currently at $4,320/oz, exposing the 50-day EMA at $4,183.5 as the next firm support.
- Yesterday, the CME announced its second margin increase in metals futures in a week, effective after COB today.
- While a net negative for precious metal prices, downside in the likes of silver may be limited by the fact a lot of recent stress (on the demand and supply side) has been centred in the physical markets.
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EUROZONE DATA: Nov Manuf PMI: Renewed Divergence Between DE/FR and The Rest
The November manufacturing PMIs highlighted renewed divergence between Germany/France and the rest of the region. Our estimate of the ex-Germany/France manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory at 51.5 in November, while the Germany/France manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48.1 (vs 48.2 flash, 49.4 prior).
- MNI: EUROZONE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 49.6 (49.7 FLASH 50.0 OCT)
Manufacturing PMI momentum is easing in Germany, France and Spain, with Italy the main exception in November. The report suggests Eurozone core goods inflation pressures remain subdued.
Key notes from the Eurozone-wide release:
- “After stabilising in October, the volume of new work received by eurozone manufacturers decreased, signalling fresh headwinds to demand….Sales to overseas markets remained a challenge for eurozone factories, latest survey data showed, with new export orders falling for a fifth month running.”
- “Manufacturing output growth was sustained, marking nine successive months of expansion. The rate of increase slowed, however, to a pace that was only marginal and the weakest across the current upturn.”
- “Prices charged for euro area goods fell for the sixth time in the past seven months.”
- “Looking ahead, eurozone manufacturers reported greater optimism towards the next 12 months. In fact, the overall level of positive sentiment rose above its historical average (since 2012) to its highest since June”
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY: Large expiry in the EUR on Thursday.
Of note:
EURUSD 1.77bn at 1.1600.
USDJPY 2.51bn at 155.00 (tue).
EURGBP 1.85bn at 0.8800/0.8850 (tue).
EURUSD 4.08bn at 1.1550 (thu).
USDJPY 1.38bn at 155.00 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.13bn at 0.6500 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1525 (2.25bn), 1.1580 (745mln), 1.1600 (1.77bn), 1.1625 (514mln).
- USDJPY: 155.00 (744mln), 156.00 (740mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4025 (500mln), 1.4030 (687mln), 1.4050 (642mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6550 (522mln).
MNI: EUROZONE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 49.6 (49.7 FLASH 50.0 OCT)
- MNI: EUROZONE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 49.6 (49.7 FLASH 50.0 OCT)
