THAILAND: Vitai Suggests Central Bank Stands Ready To East Policy If Needed
Wires run comments from Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Vitai Ratanakorn, who says that the central bank is ready to ease monetary policy further if needed. He notes that there is still policy space left, with previous cuts yet to have a full impact.
- Vitai says that the current +1-3% Y/Y medium-term inflation target remains appropriate and the central bank will aim to keep inflation low and stable.
- The BoT is in talks with the Finance Minisstry and gold traders on the impact of online gold transactions on the baht; any measures will target online transactions.
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CROSS ASSET: USD Demand Amid Wider Cross-Asset Move
USD demand in recent trade with European equities off session highs and core global FI firming, looking for a clear driver, no new news on the major wires.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3868 High Aug 26
- PRICE: 1.3859 @ 08:01 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 1.3782/27 50-day EMA / Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. The recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, marks the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. An extension higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a short-term bear theme and expose 1.3709 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.
STIR: ECB Implied Rates Steady Ahead of Tomorrow's ECB Decision
The ECB is fully expected to leave its three key rates on hold on Thursday, with its deposit rate at 2.00%. President Lagarde is expected to continue to suggest policy is in a good place.
- A data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach is expected to be reiterated in a continuation of July’s “deliberatively uninformative” communication approach around future rate decisions.
- Lagarde’s characterisation of economic resilience and/or the extent to which uncertainty has been alleviated by the US-EU trade deal should help shape market reaction.
- MNI’s full ECB preview is here
- ECB-dated OIS price 17bps of easing through July 2026, little changed from yesterday’s close.
- Euribor futures are flat to +1.5 ticks through the blues, with the strip lightly bull flattening. Since the ECB's July decision, ERZ6 has traded in a tight 13 tick range.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.925 | 0.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.914 | -0.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.846 | -7.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.825 | -9.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.778 | -14.5 |
| Apr-26 | 1.770 | -15.3 |
| Jun-26 | 1.758 | -16.5 |
| Jul-26 | 1.754 | -16.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
