US: Views Of The Economy Tick Up - CBS/YouGov
Jul-31 18:14
A new CBS News/YouGov survey has found that, “Views of the economy, while still net negative, ticked back up a bit, along with more positive ratings of the stock market.”
- CBS notes: “Most Americans expect prices to go up in the coming months, however, which is dampening their outlook going forward and for many — especially at lower income levels — their plans for purchases. Two-thirds think the prices of things they buy will go up either a little or a lot. That's far more than those who expect prices to just hold steady.”
- The report notes: “On a wider time horizon, the percentage that characterize the U.S. as headed for an outright recession over the next year is down a bit from June, but pessimism — those who think it's headed for either a slowdown or recession — continues to outnumber the more optimistic group that foresees growth or a boom.”
- The survey comes after the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index "improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 points)." Conference Board noted on July 29: “Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels.”
Figure 1: Percentage of Respondents Saying the US Economy is Good
Source: CBS
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 2Y Sale
Jul-01 18:10
- -12,035 TUU5 103-28.5, sell through 103-28.75 post time bid at 1354:06ET, DV01 $465,000.
- The 2Y trades 103-28.38 last (-4)
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions Remain Intact
Jul-01 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 3: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 1: 0.8597 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.8588 @ 16:18 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 0.8514/8482 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8592, 61.8% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. Sights are on 0.8624, the Apr 21 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8482, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment
Jul-01 17:50
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 95k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
