US: Viewpoint - Inflation Is A Risk

Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Period as the tariff deadline approaches, inflows returned yesterday. 

• South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$206m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$285m. 2025 to date flows are -$8,977. The 5-day average is +$57m, the 20-day average is -$35m and the 100-day average of -$75m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$35m yesterday, with total inflows of +$1,054 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,190. The 5-day average is +$211m, the 20-day average of +$397m and the 100-day average of -$7m.
• India: Had inflows of +$323m as of the 7th, with total inflows of +$141m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$8,014m.  The 5-day average is +$28m, the 20-day average of +$126m and the 100-day average of +$8m.
• Indonesia: Had outflows of -$60m yesterday, with total outflows of -$203m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$3,483m.  The 5-day average is -$41m, the 20-day average -$23m and the 100-day average -$33m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$5m yesterday, with outflows totaling -$73m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,433m. The 5-day average is -$15m, the 20-day average of -$15m and the 100-day average of -$21m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows as of -$2m yesterday, totaling -$36m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,738m. The 5-day average is -$7m, the 20-day average of -$11m and the 100-day average of -$20m.
• Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$3m yesterday, with net inflows of +$28m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$549m. The 5-day average is +$6m, the 20-day average of -$2m the 100-day average of -$5m.

The RBNZ kept rates on hold as expected, leaving the policy rate at 3.25%. This was widely expected and largely priced by financial markets. More details to follow. 

• RBNZ EXPECTS LOWER OCR IF INFLATION TREND CONTINUES