THAILAND: VIEW: UOB Sees Another 25bp Cut In June But Could Be Delayed

• RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a key resistance         
• RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 4          
• RES 2: 118.382 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off   
• RES 1: 118.200 High Mar 31                                 
• PRICE: 117.740 @ 05:47 BST Apr 1  
• SUP 1: 117.470 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support   
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 116.470 Low Mar 12      

Bobl futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday, before retreating. The contract has breached 117.974, the 61.8% retracement of the bear leg between Feb 28 - Mar 6. The break strengthens the current bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards 118.382, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.470., the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 117.080, the Mar 25 low.

China Vanke, often viewed as a bellwether for the property sector saw shares up +2.5% in Hong Kong despite missing earnings. 

Following the lifting of a ban on short selling, global funds accounted for 90% of the short sales in stocks on the KOSPI on Monday according to exchange data. 

Foreign outflows in Taiwan continue unabated and has seen over $3bn leave the market in the last five trading days. 

A better day in general for Asian bourses as China’s markets performed well across the board, giving impetus to others. 

• China’s Hang Seng lead the way rising +1.06%, gradually pushing it into positive territory over the last five days.  The CSI 300 is up +0.29%, Shanghai Comp +0.59% and Shenzhen up +0.90%.
• Taiwan's TAIEX is up strongly despite the outflows, rising by +2.53% for its strongest day since early January.  
• Following yesterday’s declines the KOSPI has roared today, rising by +1.94% spurred on by positive economic data releases.
• Having been closed yesterday, Singapore’s Straits Times is playing catch up on yesterday’s regional falls, down -0.20% whilst the Philippines is up for a second day by +0.54%.
• India’s NIFTY 50 has enjoyed a strong period of gains, but is giving back at this morning’s open, down -0.25%. 

• RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
• RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0861/0955 High Mar 21 / 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 1.0826 @ 05:58 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support    
• SUP 2: 1.0656 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0602 Low Mar 5     
• SUP 4: 1.0548 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 18 bull run

The trend condition in EURUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.0733, the Mar 27 low, marks a key near-term support. A move through it would confirm a clear breach of the 20-day EMA and signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0656. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.