RBNZ: VIEW: TD Securities Push View Of Next Cut To Aug
TD Securities note that “the RBNZ cut the OCR 25bps as expected, but it delivered a more measured message”.
- They suggest that “the case for the RBNZ to cut in July is not so clear-cut now. Accordingly, we push our call for a 25bps July cut to August (which would take the OCR to 3.00%. The RBNZ's July OCR decision is a day after the Trump Administration 8 July deadline to conclude trade negotiations. The Bank can make a more informed decision on 20 August when it will have CPI and Labour market data at hand (released 21 July and 6 August, respectively)”.
- TD have retained their call for a 3.00% terminal cash rate as they see upside risks to the Bank's CPI forecasts.
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EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 163.29 @ 07:15 GMT Apr 28
- SUP 1: 161.37/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key S/T support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.37, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Breaches Resistance
- RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- PRICE: 120.09 @ Close Apr 25
- SUP 1: 119.42/118.85 High Apr 22 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures have traded higher last week and the contract maintains a bullish tone. Last Thursday’s strong rally reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher has resulted in the break of key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 118.85, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.
RATINGS: Affirmations & Outlook Tweaks On Friday
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- S&P affirmed Belgium at AA; Outlook revised to Negative
- S&P affirmed Slovakia at A+; Outlook revised to Negative
- S&P affirmed Turkey at BB-; Outlook Stable
- Morningstar DBRS assigned A rating to Croatia, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS assigned AA rating to Czech Republic, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed the European Union at AAA, Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed Luxembourg at AAA, Outlook Stable
