BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan push back next cut to February from November
Sep-18 13:33
- JP Morgan has pushed back its expectation of the next cut to February although notes that "a December cut is plausible".
- JPM "see February as more likely assuming expected wage and price setting move favourably around the turn of the year."
- It notes that the call change is due to "a reduction in dovish dissent, reduced growth concerns, and lingering inflation persistence suggest the evolving risk balance will persuade the MPC to wait longer before cutting again."
- JP Morgan still sees the terminal rate at 3.50% with a further cut in April (it previously looked for 25bp cuts in November and February).
- We think there may be a few other sellside call changes this week despite the lack of surprises in the labour and CPI data releases and the in line MPC communications and vote split today, with analysts likely taking this opportunity to reassess their medium-term views.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
Aug-19 13:30
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
- PRICE: 6462.75 @ 14:19 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 6399.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6275.86 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading just below its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.86, the 50-day EMA.
EQUITIES: A new Contract high for the Estoxx Futures
Aug-19 13:28
- A new contract high for theSeptmber Estoxx future expiry, the best traded level since March.
- Looking back at the June Expiry (VGM5), the March high is situated at 5515.00.
- For the Cash SX5E , the March and all time record high is at 5568.19.
- Hope of a ceasifire and ultimately peace in Ukraine have been supporting of the Risk On Tone in Europe.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
Aug-19 13:26
SPX: 6,448.7 (-0.0%); DJIA: 45,015 (+0.2%/+103pts); NDX: 23,686.8 (-0.1%).
